Recently, the PTA market price has been consolidating at a high level. After the National Day holiday, some PTA devices have resumed operation one after another. The expected increase in the supply side has caused PTA prices to fall back after reaching a high level. The transaction atmosphere in the spot market was flat and the basis spread weakened in a narrow range. Factors such as power rationing and dual control have become hot words among the people. Some industry players are becoming more cautious. The current power rationing policy for the downstream markets in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is still being adjusted, resulting in continued low demand on the demand side.
2020-2021 PTA operating rate trend comparison chart
Source: Longzhong Information
First of all, PTA supply increased after being low. After returning from the National Day holiday, PTA enterprise units have resumed operation one after another, including Fuhai Chuang’s 4.5 million tons, Yangzi Petrochemical’s 650,000 tons, Sichuan Energy Investment’s 1 million tons, Fujian Baihong’s 1.25 million tons, and Honggang Petrochemical’s 2.5 million tons units. In addition, Yisheng Chemical’s 2.25 million tons and 3.75 million tons units are gradually recovering after a short shutdown. The current PTA operating rate has increased to 73.98%. There is no clear restart time for Jiaxing Petrochemical’s 1.5 million tons and Honggang 1.5 million tons units. Hengli Petrochemical Line 5 stopped on October 8 and plans to restart operations after two weeks of maintenance. On the whole, with the restart of some PTA devices, supply has increased, and the current daily output is 140,100 tons.
Polyester demand has not improved significantly. After the holiday, the control phenomenon continues in some areas, involving Hangzhou, Jiaxing, Huzhou and other places. Domestic leading polyester companies Hengyi, Tongkun, and Xinfengming all continue to reduce production and load, and market supply is further reduced. Although China Resources and Hengming have restarted, they have a lot of maintenance work, so the polyester load is still around 76.75%. There are not many device trends in the short-term polyester market. Some early production reductions and maintenance devices are expected to restart. The short-term polyester industry load is expected to be at 77-78%.
Taken together, the supply side of PTA may be at a high level in the short term, while the increase in polyester demand still has a long way to go. From the perspective of supply and demand , short-period PTA has a tendency to accumulate inventory. However, there is still a stable upward driving force on the cost side, which provides good support for PTA. Under the long-short game, PTA mostly consolidates at a high level. </p
