During the National Day, ICE cotton futures prices soared. After the holiday, domestic cotton futures spot prices rose sharply and then fluctuated strongly at high levels. The price gap between domestic and foreign cotton expanded again. The price of downstream cotton yarn has increased significantly, and the gray fabric market remains cautious.
1. Price trend
(1) Cotton prices at home and abroad fluctuate at high levels
On October 14, the national cotton price B index was 21,475 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,959 yuan/ton from the end of September. The main contract of Zheng cotton futures was 21,283 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,405 yuan/ton from the end of September. tons, the international cotton M index (1% tariff RMB import cost) is 19,378 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,446 yuan/ton from the end of September, and the settlement price of the main ICE cotton futures contract is 106.78 cents/pound, an increase of 5.32 cents/ton from the end of September. pound; the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton is 2,097 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,513 yuan/ton from the previous month (Table 1, Figure 1, Figure 2).
(2) Cotton yarn prices rise
On October 14, China’s 32-count carded pure cotton yarn was 29,695 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,877 yuan/ton from the end of September; India’s 32-count carded pure cotton yarn was 29,695 yuan/ton. Carded cotton yarn is 28,052 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,337 yuan/ton from the end of September; Vietnam’s 32-count carded cotton yarn is 28,996 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,807 yuan/ton from the end of September; Indonesia’s 32-count carded cotton yarn is 28,326 yuan / ton, an increase of 976 yuan / ton from the end of September; Pakistani 21-count carded cotton yarn is 23,895 yuan / ton, an increase of 726 yuan / ton from the end of September (Table 2, Figure 3).
(3) Yarn cotton, The price difference between polyester and cotton widened
On October 14, the price difference between domestic yarn and cotton was 8,320 yuan/ton, 45 yuan/ton wider than at the end of September; the price difference between polyester and cotton was 13,373 yuan/ton, 13,373 yuan/ton higher than at the end of September At the end of the month, it expanded to 2,120 yuan/ton (Table 3, Figure 4).
2. Supply and demand situation
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(1) Global cotton production is stable, and forecast consumption is increased month-on-month
The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) released in October 2021 Data show that in 2021/22, global cotton opening stocks were 20.66 million tons, a decrease of 320,000 tons from the previous month, and a decrease of 1.47 million tons year-on-year; output was 24.93 million tons, a decrease of 120,000 tons from the previous month, and an increase of 740,000 tons year-on-year; consumption was 25.87 million tons, An increase of 90,000 tons month-on-month and an increase of 210,000 tons year-on-year; the ending inventory was 19.72 million tons, a decrease of 530,000 tons month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 940,000 tons; the inventory-to-consumption ratio (except China) was 59%, a decrease of 3 percentage points month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 7 percentage points (see Appendix 1 for details).
(2) Domestic new cotton is on the market, and consumption increases month-on-month
According to the estimated domestic cotton output of 5.68 million tons (National Cotton Market Monitoring System forecast for September 2021), as of October 8, a total of 678,000 tons of seed cotton and lint cotton have been sold nationwide, a year-on-year decrease of 1.055 million tons, and a decrease of 846,000 tons compared with the average of the past four years; a total of 208,000 tons of lint cotton have been processed, a year-on-year decrease of 1.055 million tons. A decrease of 286,000 tons, a decrease of 357,000 tons compared with the average of the past four years.
According to Wind data, as of the end of August, the national cotton commercial inventory was 2.45 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 70,900 tons; Xinjiang cotton commercial stocks were 1.7082 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 493,500 tons tons (Figure 5).
In August 2021, my country’s spinning output was 2.405 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons or 0.9% from the previous month; from September 2020 to August 2021, my country’s cumulative Spinning yarn output was 28.973 million tons, an increase of 2.444 million tons or 9.2% compared with the same period last year.
3. Import and export trade
(1) China
1. China’s cotton imports
In August 2021, my country’s cotton imports were 8.63 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 56,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 39.2%. From September 2020 to August 2021, my country imported 2.7466 million tons of cotton, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 1.143 million tons, and a cumulative year-on-year increase of 71.3% (Figure 6).
From September 2020 to August 2021, the main source countries of my country’s cotton imports are: the United States (43.5%), Brazil (26%), India (18.9%), and Australia (2.6%), Burkina Faso (1.6%), Sudan (1.1%), Benin (1.1%), Mali (0.9%).
Among them, the countries or regions whose import proportion increased year-on-year are: India (+10.3%), the United States (+8.6%), and Burkina Faso (+0.8%) , Benin (+0.1%); countries or regions with a year-on-year decrease in import proportion are: Brazil (-9.4%), Australia (-8.5%), and Sudan (-0.4%) (Figure 7).
Among them, the countries or regions whose export proportion increased year-on-year are: China (+19%), Vietnam (+3.1%), Thailand (+0.1%); the countries or regions whose export proportion decreased year-on-year are: Bangladesh countries (-18.5%) and Indonesia (-0.9%) (Figure 17).
3. Indian cotton yarn export
2021 In July 2020, India exported 122,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year-on-year increase of 19,000 tons or 18%. From September 2020 to July 2021, India’s cotton yarn exports were 1.0819 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 200,000 tons, and a cumulative year-on-year increase of 22.7% (Figure 18).
From September 2020 to July 2021, the main destinations for Indian cotton yarn exports are: Bangladesh (28.8%), China (25.1%), Vietnam (5.4%), Peru (4.7%), Portugal (4.3%), Egypt (4.1%).
Among them, the countries or regions whose export share increased year-on-year are: Bangladesh (+4.6%), Peru (+0.8%), Vietnam (+0.3%); Countries or regions with year-on-year decreases are: Egypt (-1.9%), China (-1.2%), and Portugal (-0.6%) (Figure 19).
(4) Australian cotton exports
In August 2021, Australia’s cotton exports were 110,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 91,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 469.9%. From September 2020 to August 2021, Australia’s cotton exports were 431,100 tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 172,000 tons, and a cumulative year-on-year increase of 66.3% (Figure 20).
From September 2020 to August 2021, the main destinations of Australian cotton exports are: Vietnam (37.8%), Indonesia (15.3%), China (14.5%), Turkey (9.1%), India (6%), Thailand (5.6%).
Among them, the countries or regions whose export share increased year-on-year are: Vietnam (+24.2%), Turkey (+8.4%), Indonesia (+5.6%), Thailand (+ 3.4%), India (+2.7%); the countries or regions whose export share decreased year-on-year are: China (-46.9%) (Figure 21).
(5) Brazilian cotton export
In September 2021, Brazil’s cotton exports were 140,200 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 19,000 tons or 11.7%. In September 2021, Brazil’s cotton exports were 140,200 tons, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 19,000 tons, and a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 11.7% (Figure 22).
In September 2021, the main destinations of Brazilian cotton exports are: China (24.5%), Vietnam (21.5%), Turkey (13.4%), Bangladesh (11.3%) , Pakistan (8.2%), Indonesia (6.8%), Malaysia (6.3%), and South Korea (4.6%).
Among them, the countries or regions whose export share increased year-on-year are: Malaysia (+3.3%), South Korea (+2.6%), Bangladesh (+0.3%); Countries or regions with year-on-year decreases are: Indonesia (-4.7%), Turkey (-0.9%), Vietnam (-0.7%), and Pakistan (-0.3%) (Figure 23).
Four. Macroeconomics
(1) Global macro overview
From a global perspective, in September, except for the United States, the manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) of the world’s major economies generally dropped month-on-month (Figure 24).
In September, the manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) released by the National Bureau of Statistics was 49.6, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month and falling below the boom-bust balance line; Caixin China The manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) was 50, an increase of 0.8 percentage points month-on-month (Figure 25).
In September, the producer price index (PPI) for clothing announced by the National Bureau of Statistics was 0.4% year-on-year, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. During the same period, the consumer price index for clothing ( CPI) was 0.5% year-on-year, and the increase was the same month-on-month (Figure 26).
(2) Domestic financial market conditions
In October, the interest rates of various maturities in the Shanghai inter-bank market remained stable. On October 12, the 3-month interbank offered rate in Shanghai was 2.423%, an increase of 6.6 basis points from the previous month (Figure 27).
Since October, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has appreciated slightly. On October 12, the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 6.4447, a month-on-month appreciation. 232 basis points (Figure 28).
(3) Global commodity price trends
October 12 , the CRB index, which represents the trend of global commodity prices, closed at 235.87, an increase of 8.20% month-on-month (Figure 29).
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Since October, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has appreciated slightly. On October 12, the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 6.4447, a month-on-month appreciation. 232 basis points (Figure 28).
(3) Global commodity price trends
October 12 , the CRB index, which represents the trend of global commodity prices, closed at 235.87, an increase of 8.20% month-on-month (Figure 29).
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