“If the logic of coal is not straightened out, it will be difficult for the logic of China’s industrial chain to be straightened out!”
Coal is not only the most important energy material in China, but also the chemical industry chain. One of the source raw materials. In the intricate chemical industry chain, various chemical products are closely related and interlocking. The trend of coal has always been a top priority for many chemical workers. Therefore, the tight supply of coal has a great impact on the entire chemical industry. , all have a very important impact.
According to public information, the downstream industries of coal are mainly electricity, steel, chemicals, building materials, etc., of which chemicals and building materials account for about 19% in total.
The most direct impact of the surge in coal prices, in addition to the increase in power generation costs, is the increase in coke, methanol, formaldehyde, ethylene glycol, PVC, and olefin products in the coal chemical industry chain. Price trend. The tight supply and rising coal prices will gradually spread to all links in the entire chemical industry chain under the influence of the “butterfly effect”.
The gap is enlarging and coal supply is tight
The cost of the chemical industry chain is rising
The coal gap is increasing day by day, which has also driven up the price of coal. As of the end of September, the price of 5,550 kcal blended coal at Qinhuangdao Port hit a new record of 1,700 yuan/ton, and the price of 5,000 kcal blended coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 1,540 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 140 yuan/ton, known as ” Crazy Stone”.
The current coal price has exceeded the high value of previous years, policy risks have increased, and there has been a recent sell-off in spot prices. The cargo has stopped making profits, but the supply is still tight in the near future. If transportation is affected by the weather and the Daqin Line maintenance or is restricted, and the demand is still relatively strong, coal prices may remain high.
Double control becomes stricter
Coal Nervous power and production restrictions have intensified
In addition to affecting the chemical industry chain and causing price increases for some chemical products, tight coal supply has also intensified power shortages in various places. .
According to incomplete statistics, more than 20 provinces, cities and regions in my country have now encountered dual control and dual restrictions. Since September, a total of 24 listed companies have issued 39 announcements about power rationing and production suspensions. The announcement involves 12 industries. Listed companies in the chemical industry account for about 30% of all companies that have suspended production, a total of 11 companies.
Judging from the regional distribution of the announced listed companies, Jiangsu Province has the largest number, with a total of 12 companies, including 6 companies in the chemical industry; Shandong Province and Zhejiang Province follow closely. There are 5 companies respectively.
Previously reported that due to dual energy consumption control restrictions, the operating rates of many major chemical provinces have dropped, tens of thousands of chemical companies have been affected, and products such as organic silicon and yellow phosphorus have increased in Yunnan. It is a 90% reduction in production. The nine provinces, cities and regions where energy consumption intensity is increasing instead of decreasing include dozens of chemical products, of which 35 chemical products account for more than 50% of the country’s production capacity, including some varieties of pesticides, potassium chloride, polyester, nylon, yellow phosphorus, Industrial silicon, phosphorus trichloride, calcium carbide and other varieties.
Just when everyone is looking forward to some areas being able to alleviate some of the “double limit” pressure in October, the “black swan” incident in Shanxi, a major coal province, has once again put the power plant use Electric pressure is pushed to its peak.
Some power companies even said that they are already facing the dilemma of “losing a dime for generating one kilowatt hour of electricity”, which can’t help but make more chemical workers worry about the current situation.
It is understood that some companies have received power reduction notices after the National Day holiday, which means that during the last 2 days of the year, In more than a month, the double-limit situation will become more severe, and the operating rate of chemical companies will also face continued low conditions.
Textile and chemical fiber companies “self-help” price increases
We may face out-of-stock dilemma in the future
Whether it is the shortage of coal at the source, or the downturn caused by production line restrictions and continued low operating rates, for textile and chemical fiber It’s fatal for businesses. Under the surge in costs, textile and chemical fiber companies can only choose to increase prices to pass the pressure to downstream and “self-rescue”. Since October, companies have not stopped increasing prices. Some companies even remind customers to confirm the availability and stocking cycle before making purchases.
Terminal textile factories have gradually accepted the fact that upstream prices have increased and have increased the prices of finished products.
The production capacity of textile factories has been compressed, inventories have begun to fall from high levels, and sales prices will also rise slightly. On October 9, the inventory of gray fabric weaving was about 32.5 days. The production restriction of looms continued, and the inventory of gray fabric dropped sharply. Not only that, the price of many gray fabrics has increased astonishingly, with both volume and price rising, and even supply is tight, and people have to queue up to get the goods.
It is understood that in areas where power outages continue after the holiday, the textile and chemical fiber industry is relatively developed, involving a variety of textile and chemical fiber products. Under the strict power and production restriction measures, many companies have announced that they will no longer work overtime during the holidays, which means…However, the gap in these products is still there and is getting worse. Before energy consumption control achieves certain results, it will be difficult for the above areas to resume production, and the shortage of supply will continue to push up the prices of related industry chain products.
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