Introduction: During the National Day holiday, polyester industrial yarn was driven by the strong rise of international crude oil, and there was a strong rising atmosphere. Many companies planned to increase their quotations by 500 yuan/ton, and actually maintained stable shipments. On the first day after the holiday, with the help of the cost side, the polyester industrial yarn market rose by 4.88%. The market has good expectations for international crude oil in the fourth quarter. Polyester industrial yarn may rise all the way with the help of costs. The contradiction between supply and demand needs to be cautious. The market may fall sharply, and risks and opportunities coexist.
Cost side
Table 1 Polyester industrial yarn before and after the National Day holiday Price comparison table (unit: yuan/ton)
Source: Longzhong Information
Statistics from Longzhong Information show that the mainstream market for polyester industrial yarn closed at 8,600 yuan/ton today, up 400 yuan/ton or 4.88% from before the holidays. The price of its main raw material, glossy slices, closed at 7,000 yuan/ton. , up 250 yuan/ton, or 3.7%. At present, the price growth of polyester industrial yarn is higher than that of glossy chips. The recent continuous rise in polyester industrial yarn is mainly due to the strong rise in international crude oil to a new high in nearly three years during the holidays. The focus of polymerization costs and glossy chip transactions has moved upward. With support from the cost side, polyester industrial yarn has passively followed the rise.
Supply side
Table 2 Polyester industrial yarn before and after the National Day holiday Start of construction comparison table
Source: Longzhong Information
Table 3 Changes in polyester industrial yarn equipment
Source: Longzhong Information
Under the background of dual control, Jiangsu Hengli , Jiangsu Longjie, Changshu Polyester, Changshu Tongheng, Zhejiang Youfu, Zhejiang Jinhuite and other polyester industrial yarn manufacturers have all reduced their burdens. The overall change in operating rates before and after National Day is not significant. As of October 8, polyester industrial yarn The operating rate was 58.20%, down 1.31 percentage points from the previous working day. During the National Day, except for Zhejiang Jinhuite and other factories that were affected by production restrictions, most factories maintained their current operations, so the overall impact of operations was limited. At present, only the impact of production restrictions was affected. The plans for a factory in Changshu will gradually heat up starting tomorrow, and most companies initially plan to start operations in mid-October. The specific policy guidance needs to be paid attention to, and under the current background of dual control, the supply of polyester industrial yarn may maintain low-load operation in the short term.
Demand side
Under the background of dual control, polyester industrial yarn The downstream field is widely distributed, and downstream enterprises have large production capacity and are mostly dispersed. Except for some industries such as rubber, most of the cord fabric, woven fabric, ribbon and other industries are small and medium-sized enterprises. According to the classification, the production restrictions of enterprises may be more than that of raw materials. , the demand side is running at a low level, with no significant change compared with before the holiday.
Summary: Under the guidance of dual control and carbon peak policies, the supply of polyester industrial yarn has declined sharply, superimposed on the international Crude oil rose strongly during the National Day holiday. Driven by costs, polyester industrial yarn has been rising. However, considering that the downstream demand side may maintain low-load operation for a long time, the market needs to pay careful attention to the contradiction between supply and demand of polyester industrial yarn after the stable operation of international crude oil. Factory inventory Increased expectations may limit the upside of its price, and do not rule out the risk of decline in the later period. Market participants need to be cautious. </p
