Recently, the polyester industry chain has begun a wave of price increases from top to bottom. The main contract of MEG once rose to a record high of over 6,000 yuan/ton. PTA’s main 2201 contract rebounded from 4,900 yuan/ton to 5,200 yuan/ton. Judging from the intraday trend, the increase was obviously weak compared to MEG. While raw materials have risen sharply, downstream polyester prices have also risen simultaneously. According to CCF data, the price increase of filament yarn after the holiday is mostly 400-500 yuan/ton, while the increase of short fiber lags behind that of filament yarn, with an increase of 350-400 yuan/ton.
“The sharp rise in the polyester industry chain should be attributed to rising costs. Brent oil prices rose by nearly US$5/barrel during this period, an increase of 6.5%, and continue to rise. , has approached US$80/barrel; naphtha has followed the rise of crude oil, with an increase of about 5%.” Pang Chunyan, an analyst at SDIC Essence Futures, said that the rise in upstream raw materials is transmitted to the downstream, bringing cost boost to downstream polyester products, while oil prices rise Boost downstream purchasing enthusiasm. Polyester sales have improved after the Mid-Autumn Festival, and facing the National Day holiday, there is also a need for appropriate stocking downstream. In her view, in addition to cost push, increased downstream procurement and supply contraction caused by power cuts across the country are also the main factors for the rise of the polyester industry chain.
In this regard, Zheshang Futures analyst Zhu Lihang also said that this price increase is mainly driven by the rising cost-end oil prices and coal prices. In addition, the recent commodity market The impact of boosting sentiment is also considerable. “From a chemical perspective alone, the growth rate of polyester is actually not high.” Zhu Lihang said that in terms of industry chain profits, due to the recent overhaul of large-scale PTA equipment, the profits of upstream PX have been transferred to PTA. The profit of ethylene glycol is still at a low level, mainly due to the larger increase in the raw material end. Downstream profits remain poor.
In Zhu Lihang’s view, since the dual control policy was mentioned, it has had a greater impact on the downstream, and the impact on the demand side is greater than the supply side, but the price of raw materials continues to rise. The main reason is the strong cost side, which drives up the prices of PTA and MEG. “The profit levels of PTA and MEG themselves are low, and the absolute inventory of MEG is at a low level during the same period in history. Once the cost-end trend is strong, prices can easily be driven up.”
The reporter learned that the price of polyester products has continued to rise recently under cost pressure. Affected by the rising buying sentiment, downstream users have concentrated on covering up their positions. Especially the week before the long holiday is also a time window for downstream stocking. The rise in oil prices has further stimulated downstream purchasing enthusiasm.
According to Zhu Lihang, although terminal operations have declined due to the dual control policy, there have been more purchases of polyester recently, and the production and sales of filament and short fiber are not bad. “The average production and sales of filament yarn this Monday was nearly 300%, which also reflects that although the current textile market is not good, there are still expectations for the peak season. If the raw materials continue to rise, the stocking sentiment may be maintained.”
Some market participants believe that the current polyester market has ushered in an era of money but no goods. Market participants believe that this statement remains open to question.
“The statement that there is money but no goods is a bit exaggerated. In fact, from the perspective of basis, after the price of raw materials rises sharply, the increase in spot prices is lower than that of futures. , the rise in the market is due to emotional factors and more expectations.” In Zhu Lihang’s view, PTA’s inventory level is still at a high level, and although MEG’s inventory level is low, the spot basis has increased sharply in the process. The weakening also reflects that the actual supply of goods is not further scarce, and the inventory of downstream filament and short fiber is relatively sufficient. The statement that there is money but no goods is still open to question.
As far as the current scope of power restrictions is concerned, the two major polyester raw materials PTA and MEG in Jiangsu have been affected to a certain extent. MEG devices such as Satellite Petrochemical, Yangtze BASF, Far East United, and Sil Bangkok, etc. are all affected, and the installations of PTAs such as Honggang Petrochemical and Yangzi Petrochemical are also affected. “The impact on polyester raw materials in Zhejiang is limited, mainly in the downstream polyester to printing and dyeing links.” Pang Chunyan said that from a national perspective, MEG has been affected more than PTA, mainly because MEG involves coal chemical processes. In addition to Jiangsu, coal chemical plants in Shandong and Xinjiang have reduced their load, and Anhui’s Hongsifang MEG plant has been shut down due to policy impacts. Overall, the start-up of coal chemical plants with high energy consumption has generally declined, and the impact will continue. As for the PTA and ethylene-based MEG equipment, there are expectations for recovery as power restrictions are relaxed in the later period.
“The further down the industrial chain, the higher the energy consumption, and the greater the possibility of sustained impact in the later period. Therefore, different products in the industrial chain will be affected differently. It is expected that PTA will After the centralized maintenance of equipment in September and October, the supply recovery will be more obvious.” Pang Chunyan said that MEG’s supply recovery will be slower due to its coal-making process, and downstream to end-use finished fabrics may be slower to recover due to textile printing and dyeing bottlenecks, so it is relatively slow. The so-called money shortage is more likely to occur in the finished product market than in the raw material side.
It is worth mentioning that at present, the market has reached the traditional peak season and the concentrated sales window of “Double 11”, but in fact, the consumption rhythm of the traditional “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” peak season is in has been disrupted in recent years.
It is understood that after the epidemic in 2020, orders exploded at the end of September, and the entire peak season lasted until the end of the year, reflected in the recovery of domestic consumption and the growth of exports. The export situation is good this year, but domestic consumption is weak, and orders have been stable throughout the year, with no significant growth so far.
“At present, the sales period of the ‘Double 11’ is getting closer and closer. The power restriction policy disrupts the market rhythm and the production is compressed.Orders may be reflected in October, so the fabric market may usher in a destocking cycle. “Pang Chunyan said, of course, it ultimately depends on the degree and duration of the power cuts. If the power cuts also have a great impact on the processing of terminal textiles and clothing, it may lead to an extension of the delivery time of pre-sale orders.
“From a supply and demand perspective, the fundamentals of polyester are not particularly optimistic right now. “Zhu Lihang believes that the downstream polyester and terminals are greatly affected by the dual control, and the load is falling again and again, while the current upstream PTA and MEG are relatively less affected. “Now the price of raw materials can continue to rise along with the cost side, which also reflects the The market expects that the peak season is approaching and demand will improve. “In his view, if the subsequent demand side can perform better, the price of polyester is still worth looking forward to. But once the peak season demand proves to be unsatisfactory, the negative feedback of demand may gradually affect the price of upstream raw materials.
</p
