In August, the national economy continued to recover, the resilience of economic development continued to show, the main macro indicators were within reasonable ranges, the foundation for “stable” economic operation continued to be consolidated, and “progressive” factors continued to accumulate. From an industry perspective, in August, the production of my country’s cotton textile enterprises slowed down, the quality and efficiency of operations declined, and market confidence weakened slightly. In August, China’s cotton textile prosperity index was 50.05, down 1.77 from July, but still above the boom-and-bust line. From the perspective of sub-indexes, the raw material procurement index, raw material inventory index, and product sales index are higher than 50, which is in the expansion range; the production index, product inventory index, business operation index, and business confidence index are lower than 50, which are below the boom-and-bust line.
Raw material procurement index
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In August, the raw material procurement index was 53.47, an increase of 0.22 from July. Judging from market prices, domestic and foreign cotton prices continued to rise that month, and the domestic cotton price increase was still higher than the international cotton price. The monthly average price of CotlookA index is 101.3 cents/pound, a month-on-month increase of 3.68%; the monthly average price of 3128 grade cotton is 18,128 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 5.47%. In terms of non-cotton fibers, the price of polyester staple fiber fell slightly, while the price of viscose staple fiber increased, but the increase was not as much as that of cotton. In August, the monthly average price of 1.4D direct-spun polyester was 7,061 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 1.16%; the monthly average price of mainstream viscose fiber was 13,151 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 2.4%. On August 23, relevant departments issued an announcement that only textile cotton companies could participate in the bidding for cotton reserve transactions, and non-textile cotton companies were stopped from participating in the bidding. The number of cotton textile companies bidding for reserve cotton increased. Therefore, the cotton purchasing volume of cotton textile enterprises increased that month, and the purchasing volume of non-cotton fiber was basically the same as in July.
Raw material inventory index
In August, the raw material inventory index was 50, an increase of 0.97 from July. The price of raw materials rose that month. Driven by the expected improvement in the traditional textile peak season, companies increased raw material inventories to ensure production, and the inventory of raw materials increased compared with July. Among them, the cotton inventory index increased by 1.27 month-on-month, and the non-cotton fiber inventory index increased by 0.67 month-on-month, but it was still below the decline and prosperity line. According to survey data from the China Cotton Textile Industry Association (hereinafter referred to as the “China Cotton Textile Industry Association”), in August, the proportion of companies with a month-on-month increase in cotton stocks was 37.58%, which was 1.84 percentage points higher than the proportion of companies with a decrease; non-cotton fiber stocks The proportion of companies with a month-on-month decrease in volume was 34.19%, which was 1.8 percentage points higher than the proportion of companies with an increase.
Production Index
In August, the production index was 49.94, down 1.48 from July. During that month, the startup of most enterprises maintained the previous level, while some enterprises had empty stations. Due to the impact of “dual control”, the startup was slightly lowered. Among them, the overall startup status of spinning mills is good, and yarn output has increased month-on-month; the startup rate of weaving mills has been reduced, and cloth output has decreased month-on-month. Survey data shows that 39.73% of the companies experienced a month-on-month increase in yarn production, which was 12.52 percentage points higher than the proportion of companies that declined. 38.16% of companies experienced a month-on-month decrease in cloth production, which was 4.28 percentage points higher than the proportion of companies that increased. Start-up The proportion of companies with declining rates was 16.84%, which was 6.56 percentage points higher than the proportion of companies with rising rates.
Product Sales Index
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In August, the product sales index was 51.38. From the perspective of market prices, cotton yarn prices rose steadily in the middle and early ten days of the year, and began to gradually decline in the second half of the year; gray fabric prices remained basically stable, with a slight loosening at the end of the month. Specifically, the monthly average price of 32-count pure cotton carded yarn is 26,980 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 1,020 yuan/ton, or 3.93%. The average monthly price of pure cotton gray fabric (32*32 130*70 2/1 47″ twill) 6.2 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 0.16 yuan/meter, or 2.65%. In terms of sales, gauze sales were lower than in July, especially cloth sales. Survey data shows that the proportion of companies with a month-on-month decrease in yarn sales is 39.79%, which is 6.43 percentage points higher than the proportion of companies with an increase. The proportion of companies with cloth sales declining month-on-month is 55.77%, which is 27.57 percentage points higher than the proportion of companies with an increase. The increase in the product sales index is mainly driven by market prices.
Product Inventory Index
In August, the product inventory index was 48.48, a decrease of 3.25 from July. In that month, the market trading atmosphere cooled slightly, especially the weaving companies’ shipments were slow, inventory began to accumulate, and companies in some areas have adopted restrictive measures. production measures. Overall, gauze inventories increased compared with July. According to survey data, 39.97% of companies had a month-on-month increase in yarn inventories, which was 8.3 percentage points higher than the proportion of companies that decreased. The ratio is 53.32%, which is 25.45 percentage points higher than the proportion of rising companies.
Business operating index
In August, the business operating index was 48.5, a decrease of 3.3 points from July. Among them, the main business income index was 49.37, a month-on-month decrease of 3.65; the total profit index was 47.64, a month-on-month decrease of 2.95. In August, cotton prices were still at a high level. Although cotton yarn prices followed the rise, downstream customer recognition was not high, and market transactions were superimposed. The price is weak, and the profit margins of spinning mills are compressed. In terms of weaving mills, the price transmission of gray fabrics is sluggish and it is difficult to increase prices. Shipping prices for foreign orders are still high, and corporate profits have dropped significantly. Survey data shows that 43.18% of companies experienced a month-on-month decrease in main business income, which was 6.33 percentage points higher than the proportion of companies that increased; 51.17% of companies experienced a month-on-month decrease in total profits, which was 23.64 percentage points higher than the proportion of companies that increased. .
Business Confidence Index
In August, the business confidence index was 49.59, down 2.8 points from July. Currently, the world epidemic continues to ferment, the global manufacturing boom continues to be lower than expected, risk aversion in the capital market has increased, and consumer confidence has declined. Domestically, natural disasters such as multiple outbreaks of the epidemic and floods have had a certain impact on the operation of the industry. The “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” textile peak season is not obvious. The increase in upstream raw material prices has not been effectively transmitted to the downstream, and market expectations have weakened. In order to ensure the completion of the “dual control” goal of energy consumption throughout the year, many places have actively promoted the “dual control” policy. Some companies are facing power rationing and production shutdowns, and their confidence is slightly less than in July. Survey data shows that 24.83% of companies believe that the market outlook is optimistic and good, and 28.91% believe that the market outlook is weak and downward.
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