It’s up! PTA has increased again!
After experiencing a short decline on August 24, PTA futures rose again on August 27.
As of August 27, PTA’s closing quotation was 8888 points, an increase of 500 points from the previous trading day, an increase of 5.96, close to the daily limit.
PTA: Bullish
The author analyzes that PTA rose this week mainly because the PTA1809 contract is about to expire. On August 24 (last Friday), the internal spot price of PTA has reached 9,000 yuan/ton. At the same time, the quotation of the 1809 contract that is about to be delivered is “only” 8,476 points, and the price difference in the middle is more than 500 yuan/ton. .
At the end of the month, this 500 yuan price difference gave the capital market a lot of room for speculation.
Driven by the PTA1809 contract, other PTA contracts have also further followed suit.
In addition, the continued rise in PX prices is also a reason. On August 24, while PTA futures fell briefly, the price of PTA raw material PX continued to rise. On August 23, the quotation of PX (FOB) Korea was US$1,205, and on August 24, the price rose to US$1,220. Of course, compared with PTA’s profits, which can easily reach thousands of yuan, the increase of more than ten dollars in raw materials is naturally insignificant, but everyone knows that the current high price of PTA itself is the result of capital speculation, and the increase in raw material prices has given capital a new reasons for speculation.
According to the author’s analysis, 9,000 points should be a critical point for this round of futures rise. The 1809 contract is approaching delivery, and it is difficult for the spot price to rise sharply again in a short period of time, exceeding 9,000 points. point, futures and spot prices inverted, causing a series of chain reactions.
Of course, there is great uncertainty in the capital market, and the above is just the author’s opinion.
Polyester filament: prices rose again
Led by PTA, on August 27, polyester filament prices rose again General gains across the board.
Downstream weaving companies have a saying to describe polyester filament , called “When it goes up, you go up, and when it goes down, you don’t fall.” In the past, this sentence was used to describe international crude oil and PTA. If the price of polyester chips rises, polyester filament will soon follow suit. While the prices of these raw materials have fallen, the price of polyester yarn will not fall all at once.
The current market situation explains this sentence well. Because the main engine of the market this time is PTA, you can also change this sentence to “If TA goes up, it goes up, if it goes down, it doesn’t fall.”
The main reason is that for the sake of shipment, polyester manufacturers cannot increase the daily limit by 5% or 6% in one day like the upstream capital market.
Downstream weaving companies are mainly small and medium-sized buyers. The buyers are scattered and everyone has different ideas. Once the price fluctuation range is too large, there will be a strong wait-and-see sentiment downstream, affecting the shipments of polyester factories.
In addition, excessive fluctuations in raw materials will also cause excessive production cost gaps among downstream weaving companies, causing chaos in the downstream weaving market.
When PTA falls, the price of polyester yarn will not fall soon because the initial cost increase has not been fully digested.
At the same time, when PTA rose, polyester yarn never showed mercy on the rise. It followed the rise that day, and the price of the industrial chain was transmitted at the speed of light.
It cannot fall even if it goes down. Once PTA rises, the price of polyester yarn will inevitably rise again.
Downstream: Continue to work hard
September and October are the traditional peak seasons for the weaving market. Over the years, there have been “gold, nine and silver” Ten” statement.
But today’s raw material prices make cloth bosses in the lower reaches of the industrial chain feel unhappy.
Because the price of raw material polyester has soared in the past month, many weaving companies have begun to raise prices together.
There are also some weaving companies that due to various reasons, cloth The price has not gone up for the time being, but most of them have chosen to hoard the cloth and wait until the price goes up before selling it.
The author understands that the current high raw material prices have significantly reduced the number of orders in the market. Traders generally said that if the quotation is low, no one will do it, and if the quotation is high, no one will do it.�No profit.
As September approaches, raw material prices continue to rise, which may delay the arrival of the traditional peak season in September. An even more pessimistic weaving boss said that perhaps the peak season in the second half of this year will be “killed” by crazy raw material prices and will never come at all. </p
