As a chemical fiber salesperson
It’s been really bad selling raw materials recently
Just now a customer said I lost my temper
“Why can’t I sell it at the price a few days ago?”
I said:
“I told you that the price is going to increase. How many tons of goods can be ordered?
You must think about it again!”
He was still anxious:
“Why don’t you force me to settle it!”
I said:
“I want you to decide,
You have to think about it!”
He yelled:
“I’m not sure, you can push it a little harder ,
Call me as hard as you can!!!”
What he said made sense, and I was speechless. To…
At the end of June, driven by PTA’s late surge of more than 3%, the polyester filament market, which was originally in the off-season, went “crazy” again! For a time, polyester manufacturers made up for the increase and closed the market, and there were surprises one after another! If you think that the price increase of polyester filament is just a trend driven by speculation factors, which comes and goes as quickly as it comes, then you are wrong.
After all, the raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol have temporarily stopped, but the price of polyester filament is still rising aggressively, and some manufacturers are even reluctant to sell it! “These specifications are out of stock, and quotations are suspended.” “We have stopped production for maintenance, and they are out of stock.”… Stimulated by the news, downstream textile companies have alternated between hot purchasing and cautious pursuit of price increases.
It can be seen that this year’s market is indeed “irregular”. The peak season is booming, and the off-season trend is strong. Entering July, why can polyester filament still be like this? capricious”? The editor below gives some analysis for reference:
1. The downstream operating rate remains high, and manufacturers are highly motivated to produce
Judging from the pattern of downstream procurement of polyester filament this year, it is greatly affected by the news, such as crude oil, PTA futures factors, etc. The rest is mainly cyclical, supplemented by on-demand replenishment, such as the beginning of the month There is an obvious replenishment operation at the end of the month. Recently, due to environmental inspections, the operating rates of some printing and dyeing enterprises and water-jet looms have been reduced. However, the overall operating rate of the downstream market remains high. For example, the current operating rate of water-jet and air-jet looms in Shengze market remains at 80%. In addition, the operating rate of circular knitting machines in other regions The start-up rate of warp knitting machines is also at a high level, manufacturers are highly motivated to produce, and normal replenishment is enough to absorb the output of polyester factories.
2. Optimistic about demand in the second half of the year, polyester factories are optimistic
Since last year, large areas of Jiangsu and Zhejiang areas have been affected by environmental protection factors. The elimination of water-jet looms has led to the transfer of part of the production capacity to northern Jiangsu, Anhui, Hubei and other regions. Thanks to the preferential support policies of the local government, the number of transferred looms is also doubling. It is reported that this part of the production capacity is likely to be released in the third quarter of this year, which will inevitably increase the marginal demand for polyester. Based on this, polyester factories are optimistic and are still optimistic about the market in the second half of the year.
3. Inventory has dropped to the lowest level in the year, and the supply of some specifications is tight
Thanks to the recent good production and sales, the current polyester Filament stock has dropped to the lowest level this year, with an overall range of 3-12 days. In terms of specific products, POY inventory lasts around 2-6 days, FDY inventory lasts around 2-5 days, and DTY inventory lasts around 11-19 days. The supply of some in-demand specifications is tight, or even in short supply, which is also supporting the polyester filament market to a certain extent.
4. Power restrictions and production restrictions + equipment maintenance, the supply of polyester filament is tight
It is reported that large-scale power rationing began in July in the Changxing area of Zhejiang, spanning a full six months until the end of 2018. The chemical fiber industry is also among them. For polyester filament manufacturers, the shutdown and restart of polyester equipment are definitely not as flexible as downstream texturing and weaving manufacturers. Once they face shutdown, it is expected to have a greater impact on output. In addition, some manufacturers have expectations of shutting down for maintenance in summer (for example, Wujiang Yingxiang recently shut down two units for maintenance, involving a production capacity of 400,000 tons, and planned maintenance for one month; Shaoxing Far East Chemical Fiber due to asset handover of all 800,000 tons of polyester units Parking, expected to stop for 1 month), the supply of polyester filament is relatively tight in the third quarter.
5. Big bosses support the market, and leading companies have the right to speak in the market
In recent years, small and medium-sized enterprises have been gradually eliminated from the market, and the polyester filament industry has become increasingly concentrated. Among them, leading enterprises such as Tongkun, Hengli, Hengyi, and Xinfengming are expected to account for About 64% of total production capacity. This gives leading companies more and more say in the evaluation process.The market is also more unified. In view of the current good fundamental expectations of polyester filament, the intention of the big players to raise prices is also relatively strong.
In short, polyester filament is different from the past. As the boundaries between off-peak and peak seasons melt, we may be able to foresee that polyester filament yarns will grow in July and August. The market price of filament yarn will not disappoint, so much so that it can be seamlessly connected with the “Golden Nine and Silver Ten”. Downstream textile companies must also gradually adapt to the “new normal” of the upstream market and reasonably arrange their purchasing nodes! </p
