This year, where is the hot spot in the textile market? I believe everyone is looking at the weaving market. From the traditional peak season of “Gold, Three, Silver and Four” to the current off-season, the popularity of the weaving market remains unabated, especially the gray fabric market. On the one hand, the reduction in output caused by environmental protection rectification, coupled with the advance stockpiling of goods by downstream markets and traders, has led to the phenomenon of market supply exceeding demand. “It is hard to find a piece of cloth”, waiting for goods, and price increases have become the norm!
However, behind the continued hot sales, there are also hidden worries in the market. The old saying that what lasts a long time must be divided is not unreasonable. The market has become popular due to the elimination of a large number of water-jet looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, and may also decline due to the hot money effect of water-jet looms. But how long can such a carnival last?
The author has listed three factors that seem to be bullish at present. Perhaps in the second half of this year, the hot market will end due to the reverse imbalance of these three factors!
The number of obsolete looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang VS the number of relocated machines
“One out, one in” of one hundred thousand water-jet looms
The obsolete looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang , causing large-scale production capacity to suffer contraction, while downstream demand is steadily increasing. When production capacity contraction and demand growth collide, it will inevitably cause large fluctuations in the market. Starting from 2016, the inventory of fabrics at the bottom of the weaving factory has been wiped out. . However, the hot money effect in the market has given households that have eliminated water-jet looms new plans.
It is understood that due to factors such as low labor costs, low environmental pressure and local preferential investment policies, the price of gray fabrics from other places is almost 2 cents cheaper than the local price. Even including freight, the cost is also lower. 1 cent or more. For gray fabrics, which have very low profits, this is an incredible number. Since the end of last year, a large number of companies have begun to move to northern Jiangsu, Anhui, Henan and other places.
But before a factory starts construction, there are basically no shortage of preliminary preparation processes such as factory preparation, deployment of supporting facilities such as water and electricity, machine placement and debugging, and recruitment. in half a year. Counting from the end of last year, these new machines will be operational by around July this year.
Although there are now large-scale gray fabrics named after clusters such as Jiangsu and Anhui gray fabrics on the market, in fact, according to market feedback, the launch time of these new machines has been delayed due to these factors. Production may be postponed:
1. A large number of second-hand water-jet looms are currently being moved out of the machines. However, the national environmental protection rectification is a game of chess. Northern Jiangsu, Anhui and other places have already shut down textiles. Equipment, and a large proportion of these substandard equipment cannot operate effectively even if it is put into production, so the point of production capacity explosion will be appropriately delayed.
2. On the other hand, due to the transfer of water-jet looms to the central and western regions in the past two years, a large number of textile bases have emerged, leading to an explosion in demand for textile machinery equipment. However, the blowout demand has also exposed textile machinery companies capacity bottlenecks. According to a textile machinery manufacturer in Shandong, Shandong, as the national textile machinery production base, is generally saturated with textile machinery production orders, and textile machinery production orders can no longer meet the production capacity of the westward migration, so this aspect also needs to be considered.
In the author’s opinion, the nearly 100,000 water-jet looms currently in full swing in the Midwest may be postponed to the end of the year or the first half of next year, and by that time, more and cheaper gray fabrics will return. In the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets, can the previous hot sales situation continue?
The weaving market’s goods-to-order situation VS the printing and dyeing factories that depend on the weather
Delivery and shipment are always a big problem
First of all, let’s explain what’s going on here Delivery and shipment are mainly divided into two aspects. One is the maintenance of production orders from weaving factories, and the other is the delivery time of gray fabrics from printing and dyeing enterprises.
The first is the production order situation of the weaving factory. It is already early June. At present, the crazy spot sales in the early stage have gradually returned to calm, and the order goods are occupying the main market sales share.
The shift from market goods to order goods shows that market enthusiasm has dropped significantly compared with the previous period. But is it big?
Generally in previous years, when we judged whether the market conditions could be maintained, we mainly looked at the status of orders. It is understood that the current market still maintains a good order volume, and manufacturers generally maintain an order cycle of one to one and a half months.
On the other hand, everyone is currently concerned about the delivery date of gray fabrics from printing and dyeing factories. Since the antimony concentration exceeded the standard during the rainy season last month, printing and dyeing enterprises have been shut down, which directly affected the delivery date of gray fabrics. Recently, with the fermentation of dye environmental protection rectification in northern Jiangsu, printing and dyeing factories have ushered in a general price increase. The weather and environmental inspections will continue to affect printing and dyeing enterprises in the near future, so it is difficult to solve the problem of gray fabric delivery in a short time.
However, it is undeniable that due to the impact of environmental protection and speculation, the price increase of dyes has become irrational. It has now been transmitted to the printing and dyeing end, and subsequent dye speculation Gradually easing, unreasonable costs may bring a big turning point to the printing and dyeing market.
So at least for now, weaving��Market orders will not experience a major decline in the near future. If there are follow-up orders at the end of July or early August, the market will still maintain good performance this year.
The fabric hoarding plot that happens every year VS the different hype methods this year
Can the fabric hoarding match the demand for clothing production?
In this year’s “once-in-a-decade” market situation, in addition to the recovery in terminal demand, there is also a lack of market hoarding to add fuel to the fire. But whether the hype of cloth hoarding and the production needs of clothing companies can coexist harmoniously is a question that everyone is concerned about.
Personally, I believe that the market is profit-driven. Three years ago I stocked up on imitation silk, two years ago I stocked up on four-sided elastic, and one year ago I stocked up on gallbladder. At the same time, the market also has off-peak and peak seasons. Some cloth owners have taken advantage of this year’s situation and it is common to stock up on goods during the off-season and sell them during the peak season.
It can be said that the phenomenon of fabric hoarding actually occurs every year, and even clothing companies will hoard a considerable amount of fabric inventory when each season comes, but this does not affect the orderly operation of the market.
However, after the Spring Festival, the purchase price of fabrics has begun to rise, especially the price increase of conventional chemical fiber products. So far, the overall fabric price has increased by 10% to 15%. Some investors have seen the huge profits from gray fabrics and have begun to try methods similar to fabric futures trading, uniting merchants in the market to purchase a certain type of gray fabrics on a large scale. It has even reached the point of monopoly, and every move they make may cause a certain type of gray fabric to rise rapidly or avalanche in a short period of time, and even affect the market prosperity to a certain extent. This still requires vigilance.
Many market participants say that the market situation in the second half of the year will depend on the production capacity in the central and western regions, but this is not the case. In the author’s opinion, the reverse imbalance of these three bullish factors may continue to affect the market in the second half of the year. However, overall, the market in the second half of the year still tends to be optimistic, and real risks may emerge at the end of the year. </p
