Foreign news on May 10, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) predicts that India’s cotton output in 2021/22 (October-September of the following year) will be 37.8 million bales, which is 37.8 million bales. The current year’s production estimate of 36.25 million tons is 4% higher.
However, the Indian textile industry believes that it is too early to predict production due to the variable rainy season conditions in the south and west.
USDA said in the “Cotton and Products Update” report that the increase in production is due to an expected increase in yields of 5%, and the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast a monsoon in the south-west rainfall is normal.
USDA expects India’s cotton planting area to shrink from 13 million hectares to 12.9 million hectares in the new year, but this will not affect its production increase expectations. Cotton sowing in states such as Punjab and Haryana is scheduled to begin soon, while sowing in other states will start next month.
Current Year Production
USDA Forecast vs. Indian Cotton There are differences in estimates from the Committee on Production and Consumption (CCPC). The committee at its meeting on April 30 this year estimated India’s cotton production in the current year at 36 million bales.
The committee’s latest estimate is lower than the previous 37.1 million bales, but is consistent with the Cotton Association of India (CAI) forecast. CAI had forecast production at the start of the current year at 36 million bales.
KSelvaraju, secretary-general of the Southern India Mills Association (SIMA), said in an interview that India’s cotton output may exceed 40 million bales due to normal rains and Crops are not affected by pests.
He said, “Heavy rainfall has affected production in the past two years, and we have also encountered pests and diseases before.”
Impact of abnormal rainfall
Abnormal rainfall in September-October 2019 affected crops and resulted in Maharashtra Crops in states such as Tel Aviv and Gujarat have been attacked by pests. In addition to Maharashtra, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and other places also experienced abnormal rainfall in 2020. India’s total cotton production in 2019-20 was 36.5 million bales.
Selvaraju, secretary general of SIMA, said, “In Telangana, we originally expected the production to be 7 million bales, but in fact it was only 5 million due to rainfall. Package.”
Last year, Telangana surpassed Gujarat and became the state with the second largest cotton planting area, with an area of 6 million hectares. The state’s planting area is expected to continue to expand this year, increasing to 7.5-8 million hectares.
While the cotton trade industry says it trusts the USDA’s forecasts, textile industry figures say it is too early to predict production.
This comment was made before USDA lowered its production estimate (previously estimated at 37.1 million bales). A person in the textile industry said, “This has been the case for the past two years.”
Per unit yield is the key
The above-mentioned source said, “Even if the planting area is forecast to continue to maintain 13 million hectares, we still have to pay attention to the yield level. Compared with more than 20 other countries, our yield level is only 1,500 per hectare. 1/3 of the kilogram yield. Australia’s cotton yield is as high as more than 2,500 kilograms per hectare.”
It also stated that India’s cotton yield reached a record in 2016-17 The high was 512 kilograms per hectare, but it fell to a low of 449 kilograms per hectare in 2018-19. This year, the yield rebounded slightly to 487 kilograms per hectare.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture predicts that India’s cotton yield will be 498 kilograms per hectare in the next season, and its estimated yields for this year and last season are 474 kilograms per hectare respectively. kg and 469 kg.
“The yield level in some states has increased, but the cotton planting area has shrunk, so the impact is not significant.”
Rajasthan currently has the highest cotton yield (683 kg per hectare) and Maharashtra has the lowest yield (349 kg per hectare).
The impact of MSP policy
Selvaraju, Secretary General of SIMA, said, Due to the favorable minimum support price offered by the central government, cotton planting area is expected to maintain the current level next year. In the current year, the minimum support price of raw cotton given by the government is 5,515 rupees per quintal, and the minimum support price is expected to be increased in the next year.
It also said, “Cotton is one of the most profitable crops. At least 30-40% of the cotton this year is produced by the National Cotton Corporation of India (Cotton Corporation of India). The government’s minimum support price is purchased. The price of the remaining cotton is also good.”
CCPC’s estimated carry-over inventory is as high as a record 12.095 million bales, but it does not affect the lowest price this year Support price setting.
The above-mentioned textile industry person said, “Our yield has not improved because we did not pay attention to the development of seeds. Affected by the new crown epidemic, the distribution situation in the past two years Poor. And even if there is no epidemic, the seed breeding technology we obtained will expire in 2012, and new plans are needed.”
Other predictionsMeasurement
The United States Department of Agriculture estimates that India’s cotton industry consumption in the next year will be 32.4 million bales, and this year’s consumption will be 30.1 million bales. Textile mill consumption is expected to grow by 8%.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that India’s cotton exports next year will be 7.7 million bales, and this year’s exports will be 6.65 million bales. According to trade sources, as of the end of last week, India’s cotton exports this year reached 5.9 million bales.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture predicts that India’s cotton imports in the next year will be 1.28 million bales, and this year’s imports will be 1.024 million bales. USDA also predicts that India’s cotton carryover inventory for the next season will be 12.869 million bales, compared with 13.181 million bales this year.
However, CCPC’s estimate of carryover inventory for this year is 9.795 million bales, and last year’s carryover inventory reached a record high of 12.095 million bales.
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