Since the beginning of this year, the chemical fiber raw material market has definitely been in a hot state, with price increases from time to time; nylon filament has won the title of “price increase king” in the market. Although polyester staple fiber is a niche product, it is not to be outdone and is catching up.
In the recent period, the price focus of polyester staple fiber has surged above the 8,000 yuan mark, and the overall price is in a good state of operating at a high level. Judging from the price focus during the year, although the price of polyester staple fiber is not as high as during the Spring Festival, it is still on the high side overall. The current mainstream quotations for 1.4D direct-spun polyester staple fiber are mostly around the 8200-8450 yuan/ton level; from the above table, we can It can be seen that the price of 1.4D polyester shorts has increased significantly both month-on-month and year-on-year, especially the year-on-year increase of nearly 20%.
In fact, it is not difficult to see from the above figure that the overall situation of polyester staple fiber will improve around May. This is naturally inseparable from the cooperation of supply, demand, cost and related industry chains.
1. Funding efforts and cost formation help
Although international oil prices fluctuate greatly, driven by futures, the upstream polyester raw material PTA market for polyester staple fiber has been on the strong side recently; the internal quotation has risen to 5260-5310 yuan/ton, which is at a relatively high level in recent months. high position. The ethylene glycol market has been rising strongly. Since June, the price has shown a step-by-step rise. Currently, its internal quotation has risen to around 7450-7480 yuan/ton, which is already close to the year’s high before the Spring Festival. The high level of consolidation in the upstream raw material market will naturally provide a cost boost to polyester staple fiber.
2. Environmental protection factors are fermenting, and supply and demand performance is good
It is reported that Fujian Xianglu will shut down its two sets of polymerization units for maintenance starting from August 29, which involves 200,000 short fibers. It is tentatively scheduled to restart in mid-September. In terms of supply, according to statistics, the polyester staple fiber production capacity in 2017 was 6.79 million tons. Among them, the devices that are included in the production capacity but are not currently in operation include Xiangsheng 200,000 tons, Far East 200,000 tons, Shanghai Hengyi 120,000 tons, and the remaining units that are not in operation. Not included in production capacity for now. In the short term, the supply side of polyester staple fiber has slightly adjusted; although the trading atmosphere in the yarn market is average and most downstream yarn mills are cautious in purchasing, rigid demand still exists. It is reported that the product inventories of mainstream polyester staple fiber manufacturers are currently concentrated at the 14-19 day level, and some are slightly higher or lower.
3. Xinjiang cotton was weighed, basically in line with expectations
On August 29, Xinjiang finally received news of the opening of scales for cotton processing enterprises. It is understood that the ginning enterprise that opened the scale this time is located in Kuitun area. The price of the opening scale is 6.8 yuan/kg (40% clothing cent, cotton seed price is 1.8 yuan/kg), which is equivalent to lint price of 14,354 yuan/ton. If 1,000 yuan is added The processing fee per ton is equivalent to the lint cost price of 15,354 yuan/ton. Some industry insiders said that such a price is relatively close to the spot price and is basically in line with market expectations. If the purchase price continues to increase on this basis, the pressure on cotton companies will be self-evident; but for such a price, the outside world is still There is a lot of discussion. Some people say that such a price is higher than the futures price, which puts pressure on corporate hedging.
In general, although the enthusiasm of downstream yarn mills and traders in purchasing has weakened, due to the influence of various factors such as environmental protection factors, various costs continue to rise, and the market outlook for polyester staple fiber may still be promising.
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