Since mid-July, due to factors such as high temperature and environmental protection, the operating rate of terminal weaving has declined rapidly, and market demand has been greatly affected. Coupled with the high correction of PTA, the production and sales of polyester filament have continued to be sluggish, and have remained at around 50-80% for a long time. Factory product inventories accumulated rapidly. Polyester filament yarn also showed a certain downward trend. However, after nearly half a month of falling prices, polyester production and sales have continued to improve recently, with the average production and sales in the past ten days reaching 130%. However, while production and sales continue to explode, prices have hardly improved. This time polyester filament manufacturers Finally I couldn’t hold it any longer!
After many days, the polyester industry supply-side seminar, commonly known as the POY4+2 Alliance meeting, was held again in Xiaoshan Rongsheng. Affected by the meeting, some polyester factories that had been stable for many days in early trading yesterday have begun to make moves. Some POY varieties Pull up 50-100 yuan. Today, the market finally ushered in a general rise, and most polyester factories increased their prices by 50-200 yuan again.
1. Production and sales continue to improve, and inventory pressure is gradually easing;
Recently, the enthusiasm for purchasing goods in the downstream weaving market is still good, and the inventory in the polyester market has further fallen. In terms of specific products, the current overall polyester market inventory has been reduced to around 4-16 days; FDY inventory has dropped slightly to 2-8 days, POY inventory has dropped to around 3-6 days, and DTY inventory has also dropped slightly to 14-23 days. Near the sky. The continued improvement in production and sales has allowed polyester manufacturers to further reduce inventory, providing support for manufacturers to increase prices.
2. Polyester raw materials continue to rise, and filament cash flow has declined significantly under cost pressure;
In recent times, the rising cost brought by the rising prices of upstream raw materials has also become a major reason for the price increases of polyester manufacturers. As an important upstream raw material for polyester filament, PTA, the spot market once followed the rise in futures prices. Although it once fell under the pressure of futures, the overall price still increased compared with the previous period; more importantly, the price of MEG products has repeatedly hit record highs. A new high, and the increase in the past half month has reached a level of over 500 yuan.
At present, the profit margins of various polyester products have shrunk significantly, especially POY and DTY. Among them, the profit level of POY150D dropped sharply to 425 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of nearly 202 yuan/ton. In addition, the profit level of DTY150D also shrank to varying degrees, to 390 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of nearly 100 yuan.
In recent years, every filament industry meeting has also affected the “nerve” of the entire chemical fiber industry. Now we hear about the convening of the polyester conference, and the willingness of polyester factories to increase prices. Can downstream weaving still support it?
1. The market is about to enter the peak season, and the demand for raw materials will continue to maintain
The upcoming September is the traditional peak season for the textile industry. Judging from the off-season market trends in July and August, the upstream polyester raw materials have basically stabilized, and other chemical fibers have been relatively stable. Overall, there has been no roller coaster market. In addition, the weaving market has been affected by various reasons, and the market has maintained a status of supply exceeding demand, which has laid a better foundation for the upcoming traditional peak season. September is the order-taking season for weaving companies, so it is expected that future demand for raw materials will continue to maintain as downstream orders increase.
2. The suspension of production due to environmental protection restrictions may cause demand to shrink during peak seasons
Of course, the concept of “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” has been gradually diluted by the textile industry in recent years. Especially due to the influence of the G20 last year, almost all printing and dyeing companies in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were shut down, which had a particularly obvious impact on textile companies. The situation this year is similar to last year. Affected by the environmental protection production capacity limit and the suspension of production, the phenomenon of overdraft of orders in advance due to the expectation that a cloth will be difficult to obtain in the later period also exists. In addition, the production capacity in Jiangsu and Zhejiang will shrink significantly. Compared with previous years, The demand for raw materials in the traditional peak season may face a certain amount of shrinkage, which means that there will no longer be a blowout in market demand.
3. High-priced raw materials may once again breed downstream resistance
Recently, environmental inspections have become increasingly strict, causing some textile printing and dyeing companies to stop operations one after another, and the market supply has been significantly reduced. In addition, the current demand for weaving conventional products has increased, and the demand for textile raw materials and auxiliary materials has continued to increase; under supply, including cartons, dyes Textile raw and auxiliary materials products such as dyeing and dyeing fees have continued to improve. Although there has been a certain increase in fabrics in the early stage, the increase is difficult to match the increase in other costs. It is understood that the price of polyester filament products alone has increased by more than a thousand yuan compared with the same period last year. A recent visit to the market also revealed that high-priced raw and auxiliary materials are slowly encountering resistance from downstream cloth bosses. �Is it possible to do a business that involves losing money and making a profit in the long run? I believe that weaving companies will also take action in the future.
Generally speaking, the filament weaving market situation this year is relatively promising. The continuity of orders will partially stimulate the demand for upstream raw materials. Coupled with the arrival of the peak season in September, we expect that the textile market in September will It will maintain an optimistic trend, but to truly test whether the market is not prosperous in the peak season or is bullish, we still have to wait until October to know!
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