First, let’s take a look at the overall operating situation of polyester. The above picture is a combination of Jin Lianchuang’s data from the past three years. In 2017, the overall operating rate remained within a relatively stable range, with little overall change. After the ups and downs of polyester production last year, except for the Spring Festival factors this year, the polyester production rate has remained above 80%. The current comprehensive polyester production rate is 81.59%. In other words, the demand for polyester is relatively stable, which is also an important factor in the recent strong price of ethylene glycol.
Compared with the stability of polyester operating rate, the profit situation of polyester is not clear. After experiencing the profit peak at the end of April and the beginning of May, the current profit situation of each product has narrowed. The profit range of each product has narrowed to less than 100 yuan, and fiber-grade PET has even suffered losses.
To sum up, although the overall trend of ethylene glycol is still strong, the profit of the polyester end has shrunk, and the ability to resist risks has further weakened. Combined with the current situation of rising ethylene glycol inventories and finished polyester inventories, it is not difficult to understand the emergence of bearish sentiment in the market. But on the other hand, the current spot volume of ethylene glycol is concentrated and the degree of market control is relatively high, so the market does not have the conditions for short selling.
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