Polyester filament has been in the doldrums for nearly a month. Finally, on the 16th, market production and sales surged, with average production and sales soaring to 240%; some manufacturers’ production and sales even reached 400%, 500%, 600%, etc., and some manufacturers appeared The measures of closing the market and reluctant to sell.
Immediately on the 17th, the quotations of mainstream polyester filament manufacturers increased as expected, especially the quotations of POY and DTY products, which had an upward space of 50-100 yuan/ton; after that, the mainstream quotations in the polyester market mostly focused on steady increases. In fact, The discount space has been significantly reduced.
Is polyester filament really starting to fight back? Did the “life-saving straw” really appear this time?
Polyester filament fell back to before liberation! Price bottom?
Looking back at the polyester filament market after the Spring Festival, except for a short-term good start, the polyester market has actually been weak and declining for nearly a month. The prices of all mainstream products have fallen relatively sharply, almost returning to the market. to levels around November and December last year. From the specific price point of view, for example, the market quotation of polyester filament semi-gloss FDY150D has currently dropped to around 8,175 yuan/ton. In the past month, it has dropped sharply by 1,125 yuan/ton, a drop of nearly 12.1%; the same is true for POY, of which The average market price of POY 150D dropped sharply by 1,100 yuan/ton to about 7,925 yuan/ton; in addition, the average market price of DTY 150D also dropped sharply to 9,700 yuan/ton.
Upstream raw materials have stopped falling and stabilized! All the bad news?
On the upstream side, first of all, international oil prices experienced a “V-shaped” reversal. In early March, due to market concerns about supply and demand, international oil prices fell under pressure. At the close of trading on the 8th, New York oil prices plummeted by more than 5%; they subsequently closed lower for several consecutive trading days. Until the Federal Reserve raised interest rates and caused the US dollar to fall, it provided effective support for the rebound in oil prices. After a strong rebound, it showed a range-bound situation. In addition, in terms of raw material PTA, after the early sharp decline in the market, along with the continuous maintenance of market equipment, further reduction in supply and other factors, market participants predict that there is not much room for PTA to fall in the future market, and the price may rebound.
Polyester filament high profit taking! Profit support?
Some time ago, the price focus of polyester filament continued to be sluggish, and polyester manufacturers offered discounts. The main factor was the support of high profits. However, as its own prices continued to fall, its high profits no longer existed, especially for FDY and POY. Product profit margins have shrunk significantly. Specifically, according to calculations, the profit level of FDY 150D dropped significantly to around 315 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 474 yuan/ton, and year-on-year, the decline also reached 487 yuan/ton; in addition, the profit of POY 150D also fell to 315 yuan/ton. Yuan/ton level has dropped by nearly 450 yuan/ton month-on-month, and year-on-year profits have also shrunk. The profit level of DTY products has relatively minimal fluctuations. Among them, the profit of DTY 150D dropped slightly to 790 yuan/ton, which increased year-on-year.
The downstream weaving market is improving steadily! Rigid demand?
In fact, for downstream weaving manufacturers, there is more or less a mentality of buying up and not buying down. Especially in the previous stage, the price of polyester filament continued to fall, which made many weaving manufacturers dare not stock up in batches for fear of losing money. basically focus on stocking up on raw materials in the early stage of consumption, cautiously wait and see from time to time, and purchase on demand, resulting in weakening production and sales of polyester filament and accumulation of inventory. As the price of polyester filament stabilizes and rebounds, and the textile market is in a period of periodic demand, market orders are steadily improving; therefore, weaving manufacturers have a purchasing mentality at low levels during the year. On the one hand, the early raw material inventory is almost exhausted, and on the other hand, the early raw material inventory is almost exhausted. There is bound to be a need for replenishment.
Nowadays, polyester filament is already at the low level in 2017. It is difficult to determine whether the price is approaching the bottom. At present, all parties in the polyester yarn market have received certain positive boosts, but whether they can seize the key “life-saving straw” of demand is still the top priority; if they cannot grasp it, the market may continue to correct.
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