1. Market review
Market review: PTA futures price plummeted: positions decreased slightly, but the price fell by more than 500 points in three days.
2. Supply and demand pattern
Supply:
1. Focus on early stage parking devices in 2017:
2. PTA starts construction under high load
Recently, the operating rate of PTA factories has stabilized at 75-78%. Excluding the impact of some long-term shutdown devices, the operating devices are basically at full capacity. In the short term, no major plant equipment maintenance plan has been announced, and the overall PTA start-up is expected to remain at a high level. Pay attention to the progress of maintenance of Yishenglian and other equipment. Due to the rapid rise in PTA prices in the early stage, its processing price difference continued to expand. In mid-February, the processing price difference once expanded to over 700 yuan/ton. Judging from the situation in recent years, the processing price difference has basically maintained a stable fluctuation within the range of 300-600 yuan/ton. The recent price drop has caused the processing price difference to fall below 300 yuan.
need:
The growth rate of new polyester production capacity is limited
1. In 2017, domestic polyester production capacity is planned to increase by 4.5 million tons, mostly concentrated in the second and third quarters, of which investment in polyester bottle flakes accounts for more than half.
2. The efficiency of domestic polyester products has improved significantly, factory start-up expectations are still relatively good, and the comprehensive start-up operating load has always maintained a high load operation of more than 80%. And the traditional terminal seasonal peak season demand is coming.
Warehouse receipt:
As of March 10, the number of PTA registered warehouse receipts was 248,000, and the number of valid forecasts was 9,290; the total number of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts is equivalent to nearly 1.3 million tons.
3. Cost factors
PX: PX will usher in an expansion cycle after 2017
However, PX is currently supported by the favorable maintenance in the second quarter, and the price difference with naphtha has widened.
International oil prices:
The surge in inventories has caused oil prices to fall. Currently, OPEC is in the process of reducing production vs. increasing U.S. production/inventory. The decrease in net long positions of funds indicates that the market’s bullish attitude towards the future market has weakened.
4. Summary
1. The price of PX is relatively strong under the expectation of maintenance, but oil prices are still likely to fall back in the short term, which will weaken the support for PTA costs. Moreover, PTA supply and demand are still loose, and the short-term price trend is expected to be weak. After the PTA processing price difference is quickly repaired, the room for further price correction is relatively limited.
2. The market outlook is expected to return to fundamentals. The PTA market supply is relatively abundant. There is a high probability that downstream construction will maintain a high level of construction. There is some room for improvement in terminal construction. The seasonal recovery of downstream will help improve the PTA supply and demand pattern and benefit the PTA price trend.
3. Focus: changes in international oil prices; start-up and operation of PTA units.
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