As the saying goes, “Extreme joy brings sorrow”, this saying really comes true for nylon. Since the New Year, nylon has grown so fast that it has surpassed polyester, the leader in the chemical fiber industry. It can be said that it has grabbed the limelight. As the saying goes, “a blessing comes with a curse.” “Xi”, nylon has not yet tasted the benefits of rising prices, and it has begun to fall. Is the “March Red” that the nylon factory bet on just gone?
The picture above shows the trend chart of nylon chips and nylon yarn in the first year. We can see that the conventional nylon chips have started to decline in mid-February. By the 8th of this month, they have dropped by nearly 200 yuan from the previous day. Yuan / ton. The prices of high-speed spinning chips and nylon yarn have been reduced on the 8th of this month.
So what is the reason for the sudden decline in nylon prices?
1. The decline in crude oil has driven the price of pure benzene to plummet, and cost support is weak
International oil prices have been on a downward trend in recent times. As of March 13, due to inventory suppression, international oil prices fell further. New York crude oil April futures fell by US$0.09 to close at US$48.40/barrel, and Brent May futures fell by US$0.09. US$0.02, closing at US$51.35/barrel. As can be seen from the picture above, the price of crude oil has basically been in a “plummet” trend since the 6th of this month. As the upstream of caprolactam, pure benzene is extracted from crude oil. “Everyone prospers, and everyone loses.” It is perfectly reflected in pure benzene, caprolactam and nylon slices. On March 13, the upstream chip market in the nylon field was weak and fell. The price of conventional spun glossy chips was 18,800-20,600 yuan/ton, and the price of high-speed spun semi-gloss chips was 20,600-21,400 yuan/ton. The overall trend shows a steady downward trend.
2. Inventories in the nylon industry are rising and demand is flat
In the first half of 2014, the nylon industry’s startup rate was 72%, and in the peak season from March to April, it was 70-80%; in the first half of 2015, the nylon industry’s average startup rate was 67%, and in the peak season, from March to April, it was above 40-70%; 2016 In the first half of the year, 69% of the nylon industry started operating, and in the peak season from March to April, it was 70% to 80%. At present, the nylon industry’s 3.43 million tons/year output is operating at about 75%. It is obvious that the nylon market’s operating rate this year is better than that of the same period last year. The chart above shows that although the operating rates of caprolactam and nylon chip factories have dropped slightly from the beginning of the month, they are still above 74%. Inventories have also increased compared with the previous period. With supply and demand relatively stable, downstream weaving manufacturers are generally less enthusiastic about stocking up. Many cloth bosses who use nylon yarn as raw material for gray fabrics said that they believed that the price of nylon yarn a year ago and in the first half of the year was artificially high, but they had to buy it after the order was placed, and the current market situation is not as good as expected, so The wait-and-see mood is strong.
To sum up, the author believes that the recent decline in crude oil has had a certain impact on the market price of nylon yarn. Cost support is weak, which has a profound impact on the current market mentality. On the other hand, the current demand in the downstream weaving market is mediocre, and the mentality of price reduction is also strong. Nylon The market trading atmosphere is light, surrounded by negative factors, and the wait-and-see attitude towards the market outlook has also led to bearish expectations for the market outlook of nylon yarn.
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