Around the Spring Festival, the polyester filament market experienced a small wave of gains. Compared with the rapid and decisive rise of the ethylene glycol market at the end of the year, the trend of the polyester filament market showed more hesitation and lack of strength. Finally, after the Lantern Festival, it began to be unable to support and headed downward, which made people feel the cold of spring. The power.
At present, the natural weather has entered March, and spring is getting closer and closer. So, can the polyester filament market usher in the “March of Spring”?
Collapse of raw material costs makes polyester factories “happy”
The disturbances in upstream raw materials always affect the hearts of polyester manufacturers. Years ago, the prices of PTA and ethylene glycol were at high levels. Supported by the raw material end, the price of polyester filament was forced to rise. However, since the beginning of the year, upstream polyester raw materials have fallen sharply, especially ethylene glycol, which has dropped by nearly 30%. , directly leading to the collapse of polyester filament costs. On the one hand, the collapse of the cost side has brought about a weak decline in the price of polyester filament. On the other hand, after its own decline was smaller than the decline in raw materials, the profits of polyester filament manufacturers have been able to significantly increase.
Production and sales are sluggish but profits are good, polyester factories have their own agendas
At present, polyester factories have returned to a high operating level of 85%, and after the rapid decline of PTA and MEG, the profits of polyester factories have been greatly improved. Although the market was delighted by the surge in the entire textile industry chain at the end of last year, the polyester factories did not pocket much profit at that time. Now the upstream has continued to fall, and although the polyester end has declined, the extent is very small. Polyester factories may prefer the current situation of making a lot of money. Therefore, as a result of the substantial increase in profits, the “real money” makes polyester factories not hesitate to operate at full capacity. However, things must be reversed. Polyester factories ignored the good conduct of the industrial chain. The order situation in the downstream market did not improve significantly at the beginning of the year. The peak season did not start early. In addition, the polyester yarn rush at the end of last year and weaving companies stocked up a large amount of raw materials. Therefore, although Polyester factories have repeatedly called out, but the effect is still not obvious. According to the production and sales data of polyester factories monitored by China Silk City Network, in the past month, the average production and sales have only been around 60%, and rarely exceeded 100%.
High operating rates and poor production and sales have directly led to an increase in polyester factory inventories. The inventory data of polyester factories monitored by China Silk City Network shows that the polyester factories were at an extremely low level in the past two years. However, after the Spring Festival, polyester factories continued to produce during the festival, and downstream reasons such as not buying the goods quickly increased. rose to mid-2016 highs. This astonishing change has naturally put great pressure on the continued rise in prices. With high inventory and good profits, polyester factories actually have their own minds and are pursuing their own wishful thinking.
Want profit or price? Polyester factories may be looking for profit balance
I have to admit that the inventory is high, the upstream is weak, and the downstream buying momentum is insufficient… In the short term, the polyester market is facing negative news. Some industry insiders have also asked the author to confirm that March has arrived, and why the traditional peak season of the weaving market is still unable to drive polyester filament. Sales volume, have we encountered fake “gold, three, silver and four”? Of course, in the author’s opinion, the peak season will only weaken, but it will never be absent. The current decline in polyester factories is also due to the impact of preferential shipments. After the current market has experienced a trough period, some signs of recovery are slowly changing. Starting from this week, we also heard that polyester factories are offering reduced discounts, while the raw material side has gradually stopped falling and stabilized. With the stable support of the raw material end, polyester factories are slowly finding a profit balance point, and with the start of the downstream peak season, the market may rise again, and the polyester filament market may see a change in March.
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