After the Spring Festival, the polyester market is as expected. Whether it is polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, polyester chips, etc., they all have a “good start”. However, the good times did not last long. After 14 days, the market continued to decline. Some market participants joked that this year’s Valentine’s Day has become a “lover’s disaster” for the polyester market. Of course, the polyester staple fiber market is no exception, and the price focus continues Go down.
As can be seen from the picture above, after the Spring Festival, boosted by favorable conditions from all parties, the polyester staple fiber market experienced a surge. Among them, the mainstream quotation center of 1.4D direct-spun polyester staple was once close to the 9,000 yuan/ton mark, and it is about to When it broke through the new high for the year, there was a correction. Since then, the polyester staple fiber market has been hard to recover, and the price center has also been falling frequently. Nowadays, the mainstream quotations of 1.4D direct-spun polyester staple fiber are mostly around the 8650-8800 yuan/ton level, and there is a risk of further decline.
This wave of polyester staple fiber manufacturers has suffered setbacks and cut prices, and most of them focus on selling goods at discounts; the first thing they face is the problem of market supply and demand. The key is demand. Although after the Spring Festival, as the production of downstream yarn manufacturers gradually resumes, the procurement of raw material polyester staple fiber will inevitably exist, and the demand activity has increased; but in fact, most manufacturers have raw material reserves before the holiday. , so when production is not at full capacity after the holiday, purchasing enthusiasm is generally low. In addition, when the price of polyester staple fiber weakens, most downstream manufacturers have a “buy up, not buy down” mentality, and the wait-and-see mood dominates, resulting in a lack of power in the demand side of polyester staple fiber.
However, after the Spring Festival, the supply of polyester staple fiber itself continues to increase, and some devices that were shut down for maintenance in the early stage have begun to restart or plan to restart. According to preliminary statistics, the polyester staple fiber production capacity in 2017 is approximately 6.79 million tons; among them, the devices that are included in the production capacity but are not currently in operation include Xiangsheng 200,000 tons, Far East 200,000 tons, Shanghai Hengyi 120,000 tons, and the rest are not in operation. Not included in production capacity for now. With the increase in supply, the inventory of polyester staple fiber products has further increased in the recent stage; it is reported that the current inventory level of mainstream manufacturers has risen to about 7-12 days.
Secondly, naturally, the cost of upstream raw materials has weakened, which has exerted a certain cost suppression on the polyester staple fiber market. In recent times, international oil prices have been fluctuating at high levels. As of the close on the 24th, New York crude oil April futures closed at US$53.99/barrel, and Brent April futures closed at US$55.99/barrel. Although the PTA market continues to pick up after the holiday, under the pressure of futures, the PTA spot market has been weak recently, and the overall price center has dropped; its internal market quotations are concentrated at around 5510-5560 yuan/ton, and market transaction discussions are centered around Around 5470-5485 yuan/ton. Another upstream raw material, ethylene glycol market, has fallen deeply into a quagmire of decline since the beginning of the year. The spot price has dropped from 8,220 yuan/ton to the current 7,300 yuan/ton. In the past half a month, Here, the price of ethylene glycol has dropped by nearly a thousand yuan.
Finally, for the polyester staple fiber market, the cotton market is also an important focus. After the Spring Festival, the cotton market once surged, and the market was quite “hot”; however, as the time for the cotton reserve to be released is approaching, most spinning companies have suspended purchases and are waiting for the release of auction and reserve details. Therefore, the cotton spot market has also emerged. The situation is in a stalemate, mainly waiting and watching. It is reported that the current price of good quality lint cotton in Anhui and other places is 15,900 yuan/ton cash delivery, and the price of weak grade 4 is around 15,600 yuan/ton; the pick-up price of double 29-grade hand picking stations in southern Xinjiang is 15,900-16,000 yuan/ton gross weight.
The reason is that, in the final analysis, the polyester staple fiber market is still due to the lack of upstream raw material cost boost and the driving force of downstream demand; downstream traders and yarn manufacturers are currently taking a risk-averse wait-and-see approach. The focus of the polyester staple fiber market outlook is to expect the market to usher in a purchasing node. Of course, we still need to pay attention to whether there is a restart plan for the polyester staple device that was inspected in the early stage and the order situation of downstream yarn manufacturers.
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