Introduction: With the slowdown in the production capacity of the sticky shorts industry in recent years, Xinjiang’s vigorous development of the textile industry has driven the overall sticky shorts market demand, and the supply and demand pattern has improved. In addition to driving the market price of sticky shorts back, industry profits have also steadily improved. Industry earnings in 2017 are expected to improve.
As can be seen from Figure 1, the production capacity of the sticky short-term industry surged by 740,000 tons in 2011, but demand was difficult to keep pace with, and the market price of sticky short-term products showed a downward trend from 2012 to 2014. As the industry’s supply and demand gradually improved, the market price trend of sticky short-term products fell back from 2015 to 2016.
As can be seen from Table 1, from 2012 to 2016, the price difference between the closing price at the end of the year and the beginning of the year in the sticky short market turned from negative to positive. From 2012 to 2014, the market decline narrowed year by year, and from 2015 to 2016, the increase steadily expanded.
Regression analysis chart of the degree of fit between sticky short-term cost price and market price from 2012 to 2016
At present, sticky short-term products have a heavier say in the industrial chain, and their impact on upstream and downstream market price trends has become increasingly obvious. As can be seen from Figure 2, the fitting degree between the short-term cost price and the market price from 2012 to 2016 is 81%.
As can be seen from Table 2, the average profit change trend of short-term industries according to Zhuochuang statistics from 2012 to 2016 is basically consistent with the year-on-year change trend of gross profit margin of a representative listed company.
In the past five years, short-term industries and companies suffered relatively prominent losses in 2014, and profits improved significantly year-on-year after 2015.
Although my country’s sticky short-term products have a capacity expansion plan of 180,000 tons in 2017, part of the production capacity may be released by the end of the year. In addition, environmental protection has an increasingly prominent impact on the sticky short-term industry. The pressure on the supply chain may be relatively limited in 2017. The textile industry in Xinjiang is developing steadily, and the demand for viscose shorts in Xinjiang will continue to increase.
2017 sticky short market price trend regression analysis forecast chart
Based on the price trend of the sticky-short market from 2015 to 2016 and the regression analysis method, it is expected that the overall market price of the sticky-short market will show a strong trend in 2017. The strength of sticky shorts may continue to drive costs, but it is expected that the cost increase will be difficult to match the increase of sticky shorts. Accordingly, the profits of the sticky shorts industry are expected to be positive in 2017.
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