According to statistics, as of 24:00 on February 14, a total of 3.983 million tons of cotton had been processed in Xinjiang, and the cumulative public inspection volume in Xinjiang was 3.893 million tons. If the “small bales of cotton” in East Xinjiang and a small amount of “large bales of cotton” that have not been put into the warehouse for public inspection are added to the statistics, “Including (some textile mills in Xinjiang pick up goods directly from ginners), Xinjiang’s total cotton output in 2016/17 will be 4-4.05 million tons, an increase of at least 500,000-600,000 tons compared with 2015/16.
Judging from surveys and feedback from all parties, as of the end of January, the overall cotton sales progress of the Corps was at least 80%, and some divisions such as the Eighth Agricultural Division and the First Agricultural Division have been basically sold out; Kuitun, Shihezi, Changji, and Tacheng in northern Xinjiang The sales progress of machine-picked cotton at local ginneries in other cotton areas is also significantly ahead of schedule compared with 2014 and 2015. At present, the lint cotton that has not been signed by ginners in Xinjiang for export is mainly low- and medium-quality hand-picked cotton and machine-picked cotton. There is not much cotton with the quality of “double 28, double 29, and double 30”. It is estimated that by mid-February Before and after, the overall sales progress of Xinjiang lint cotton reached more than 70%, and local cotton enterprises were lagging behind.
So how much cotton willbe transported out of Xinjiang by road and rail after mid-February?
1. According to statistics from a domestic agency, before the end of January, my country had transported a total of about 1.6 million tons of Xinjiang cotton in 2016/17 out of Xinjiang (including roads and railways). However, considering that small bales of cotton such as Turpan and Hami and a small amount of cotton in southern Xinjiang have not been exported, Public inspection vehicles are transported out of Xinjiang, so the actual volume out of Xinjiang is about 1.65-1.7 million tons; the total of the supervision warehouse in Xinjiang + the inventory in the ginning factory is 2.3-2.4 million tons.
2. How much lint do textile companies in Xinjiang consume from February to August? According to statistics, the number of spindles in Xinjiang reached 16-18 million by the end of 2016 (the number is expected to exceed 20 million by the end of 2017), mainly cotton yarn, viscose yarn, and blended yarn projects. The annual cotton consumption capacity is expected to be about 1.1 million tons. About 550,000 tons are needed from February to August.
3. In the second half of 2016/17, there are still 1.75-1.85 million tons of Xinjiang cotton waiting to leave Xinjiang.
The editor judged that a major feature of Xinjiang cotton in 2016/17 is that “the contract sales progress is fast and the shipment out of Xinjiang is relatively slow.” Although there are still nearly 1.8 million tons of cotton waiting to be shipped out of Xinjiang, if the price is 55%-60 % of the sales progress, about 1 million tons of cotton have been signed, including Xinjiang Corps cotton; only 700,000-800,000 tons of Xinjiang cotton resources may actually flow to the spot market, impacting or competing with reserve cotton auctions and foreign cotton imports.
Moreover, judging from the survey, the prerequisite sales of ginners are mainly high-quality and high-grade cotton, which at least generates premiums rather than discounts on futures warehouse receipts. The remaining resources are based on horse value C2 (or C1) and a breaking strength lower than 27.5CN. , the fiber length is mostly 28mm and below. The tight supply of domestic high-quality cotton in 2016/17 may fully appear in May.
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