After a “good start”, the polyester filament market seems to have calmed down. However, underneath the calm appearance, there are turbulent waves; the market is also abuzz with discussions about the market outlook for polyester filament.
Some people believe that after the accumulation of production during the Spring Festival, polyester manufacturers have accumulated a certain amount of inventory, causing pressure; polyester filament cannot rise, and some market participants even expect prices to fall.
Some people also believe that it is absolutely impossible for polyester filament market prices to fall sharply in a favorable environment in the textile market.
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The father-in-law is right, the mother-in-law is right! This wave of polyester filament market tends to be flat. Is it due to the suppression of the cost of upstream raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol; the weakening of purchasing enthusiasm in the downstream weaving market and the constraints of polyester manufacturers’ own inventories; or is it a negative result caused by a combination of factors? Influence? Does it mean that the polyester filament market is “exhausted”?
In fact, this is not the case. From the perspective of upstream raw materials, international oil prices fluctuate at high levels, and the upstream polyester raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol are in a normal range adjustment pattern. As for the downstream weaving market, with the arrival of the traditional textile peak season, the market is expected to improve. Regardless of whether it is analyzed from the upstream or downstream market, it can only be said that polyester filament lacks a boost in price increases in the near future, and the market may experience a normal high correction; however, once favorable conditions emerge, the polyester industry chain The lively atmosphere will be stimulated once again.
In detail, let’s first take a look at the year-on-year and month-on-month price data of the polyester filament market. There are pictures and the truth! The year-on-year price is absolutely gorgeous. How can you still say that the current polyester filament is ‘not good’?
Of course, as a serious analyst, you must seriously analyze and interpret the polyester filament market from multiple angles.
The first thing that needs the most attention is naturally the procurement situation in the downstream weaving market and the overall production and sales trend of polyester yarn. During the Spring Festival, the market basically showed a pattern of price but no market; with the end of the Spring Festival holiday, workers returned to work, and weaving manufacturers entered the production stage in an orderly manner. The operating rate of the downstream weaving market gradually increased, and the enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials also increased. Polyester The overall transaction atmosphere of the filament yarn market has obviously recovered. Shortly after the market opened, the average average production and sales of the mainstream market generally exceeded 100. In recent times, the sales of polyester yarn have declined slightly, with average production and sales concentrated at around 60-90%. This is mainly due to the fact that some weaving manufacturers are hoarding goods in the early stages of consumption, and the demand has not been fully released, but urgent purchases are bound to exist.
Secondly, in terms of inventory, low inventory has been the “encouragement” for the price increase of polyester filament. During the Spring Festival, due to the Spring Festival holiday of downstream weaving manufacturers, while polyester filament manufacturers are still in production, the inventory levels of mainstream manufacturers are relatively high. In terms of specific products, the current overall polyester market inventory has risen to around 12-18 days; POY inventory is concentrated at 9-13 days, FDY inventory has risen to around 12-17 days, and DTY inventory is around 18-28 days . However, compared with the same period last year or compared with the first half of 2016, the current inventory performance of polyester filament is still good.
The final focus must be the profitability of polyester manufacturers. According to calculations, the profits of various products in the polyester filament market are still relatively optimistic recently, especially POY and DTY products; among them, although the month-on-month increase of DTY 150D is relatively small, the year-on-year profit margin has increased by more than a thousand yuan. In addition, POY 150D has experienced a turnaround from losses to profits, with large month-on-month and year-on-year increases; the profitability of FDY products is also remarkable.
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