Never imagined! PTA futures, which had been so strong after the Spring Festival, actually closed down on the 15th. The closing price of the main 1705 contract fell sharply by nearly 2.69%! The downward trend further deepened in the night trading that day! On the 16th, PTA futures once again showed a weak trend, closing sharply down by nearly 1.94%!
The author silently said that he had fainted from crying in the toilet, please don’t hold me!
Under such a good market situation, how could you not write articles for the sake of click-through rate? I still want to have a little headline party, and I have already prepared a title for the article; for example, “The downstream replenishment node has arrived, PTA has increased continuously, and polyester filament has to ride on the price increase again?” or Is it “the price of raw materials is rising, the downstream replenishment node is coming, and the price increase of polyester filament is blowing again?”…
But all of this was deeply hurt by the sharp decline of PTA! I believe everyone has to question, when the upstream cost support is loosened, will the polyester filament yarn that seemed to be in such good shape in the early stage not be able to rise? Are prices going to fall?
As some friends mentioned in the previous analysis article, from the perspective of the upstream raw material market of polyester filament, the market trend of raw material PTA has suddenly changed. After several days of rapid progress, PTA futures prices have plummeted, and the center of gravity of spot prices has also shifted. weak. On the other hand, the post-holiday market for ethylene glycol is not as optimistic as expected. Under the pressure of inventory and funds, the price of ethylene glycol has been falling continuously in recent days.
Indeed, polyester filament, which has been rising since the market opened, has experienced a “seven consecutive rises” led by POY, and the rise has gradually slowed down, and production and sales have also declined to a certain extent. However, stimulated by the continued rise of PTA futures, after the Lantern Festival, while the downstream weaving stockings were still in the recovery period, the production and sales of the polyester filament market were able to rise strongly, and the situation exceeded 100%; this is largely due to PTA Positive market boost. Subsequently, as PTA futures plummeted, the market price of polyester filament stabilized, and production and sales weakened significantly.
Buthow could polyester filament, which is said to be wind and rain, compromise so easily because of the short-term correction of PTA! Believe it or not, I don’t really believe it.
In 2016, the unconventional character of polyester filament has emerged. As long as there is any “turbulence” in the industry, the polyester filament market will stage various turnarounds. Whether it is the strong rise in the cost of upstream raw materials, the convening of various chemical fiber industry conferences, the boost in downstream procurement demand, or the stimulation of various other news; it will all become the reasons for polyester and polyester manufacturers to promote bullish prices.
Who can guarantee that this routine of polyester manufacturers will not continue in 2017?
At present, the upstream polyester raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol can only be regarded as normal high-level corrections. Once there are favorable stimuli such as equipment maintenance, supply reduction or inventory reduction, the prices of upstream raw materials may rise again. In addition, the downstream weaving market is full of orders under the positive expectations of “three actives and four prosperous”. It is said that some manufacturers’ market orders have been queued up to the end of March, which will leverage their purchasing power for raw material demand. I believe that the possibility of polyester filament prices rising is extremely high. Are you still questioning the degree of control polyester filament manufacturers have over price?
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