Since entering the bottom range in October 2014, PTA has risen sharply recently and has once again reached the upper edge of the range. In 2016, against the background of the vigorous surge in bulk commodities, PTA gained little. However, it caught up in the last few trading days of the year-end and significantly increased its position by 160,000+. The futures price hit a new high in the past two years, and the total position reached more than 2.4 million lots. , second only to the controversial corn.
The trigger for the surge
On January 22-23, an oil tank fire at the refinery of Tonen General Petroleum Company in Japan and a fire at the SK aromatics plant in South Korea caused the PX unit to shut down. The oversupply of PX in the first quarter eased, and the price of PX in Asia rose sharply. The cost push made PTA Also ushered in a big rise.
Zhongyu Information believes that the two accidents had little impact on the market theory. However, in the context of Asia’s total overhaul of 7.7 million tons/year PX devices from March to June, the two fire accidents became the trigger for market speculation.
The underlying reason: overhaul
A senior chemical investor told a reporter from a financial website that the fundamental reason for the surge in PTA was the second quarter maintenance. According to statistics from Zhongyu Information, more than 16% of PX devices in Asia have been undergoing maintenance from March to June. By then, it is the traditional peak season for terminal polyester demand. The expectation of low PX goods and rising prices has boosted the market. In addition, crude oil prices have resisted falling, and the PX market has been subject to speculation. The rally is imminent.
According to online statistics, in the first half of 2017, the production capacity involved in PTA maintenance equipment was 6.54 million tons, and the production capacity involved in PX equipment maintenance was 7.655 million tons.
Liu Dewei, chairman of Xianglu Petrochemical Co., Ltd., said in a previous interview that before June 2017, the price of PX should have a chance to reach the Asian port price of 930 to 940 U.S. dollars, and the corresponding PTA would have a chance to reach the port price in Asia. In the short term, we can see 6,000 yuan/ton. At least in the first half of 2017, PTA still had a steady upward trend.
Supporting factors: Crude oil prices rebound
The oil ministers of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC oil-producing countries gathered in Vienna last Sunday (January 22) to participate in a meeting to supervise the implementation of the production reduction agreement. The production reduction agreement was implemented on January 1 this year, and the scale of production reduction was It is about 1.8 million barrels per day, and currently it has achieved about 1.5 million barrels per day. Ministers said Saudi Arabia, Algeria and Kuwait had cut production more than required, and Russia was cutting supplies faster than expected.
A World Bank report shows that as oil-producing countries fulfill their crude oil production reduction commitments to a certain extent, the average price of fuels including crude oil and natural gas will increase by 26% in 2017 compared with 2016. At the same time, the bank also predicts that the average price of crude oil will reach US$55 per barrel in 2017, an increase of 29% from 2016.
The trend of PTA in 2017 may rise first and then fall
According to Zhongyu Information, in 2017, there will be a theoretical increase of about 4.5 million tons/year of polyester plants, most of which will be launched in the first half of 2017, while the PTA plants of Xianglu, Far East, and Pengwei may be restarted in the second half of 2017. , so in the first half of 2017, the demand for PTA increased but the supply failed to increase, especially during the peak market demand season from March to April. Zhongyu Information believes that the price of PTA may rise to a high in 2017 under the dual benefits of cost support and stable demand. point.
In the second half of the year, PTA prices may be suppressed again due to the restart of installations. Liu Dewei also said that PTA is generally in a basically balanced state in 2017, but as some production capacity resumes production after May and June, there may still be a certain oversupply. The PTA market in the second half of the year may stop and fall, mainly due to the support of the price of upstream raw material PX on the PTA market.
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