Introduction: December is an extraordinary month for the entire polyester industry. Polyester products have staged year-end carnivals one after another, which really attracted a lot of attention. On November 30, the OPEC oil-producing countries reached an agreement to reduce production, and oil prices immediately jumped 9% that day, and the increase continued; then, at the Vienna meeting on December 10, non-OPEC oil-producing countries and OPEC once again reached an agreement on production reduction, boosting the international Oil prices hit a new high, soaring to their highest level since July 2015. A wave of price increases driven by cost-end crude oil has officially begun.
In the 20 days or so since the end of November, PX upstream and downstream products have shown an upward trend, with an average increase of around 10%. Among them, the increase in ethylene glycol is particularly obvious, reaching 19.59%. Sinopec has raised its listing price several times during the month. , and the electronic trading has sealed the daily limit several times; polyester product filament, staple fiber, chips, etc. all rose in a narrow range, hitting new highs during the year; in contrast, the increase in PX was particularly moderate, although the overall upward trend The general trend is correct, but the pace of progress is relatively slow. When the Double 12 futures market is generally warming up, with the positive factors of “strong costs, strong downstream, and good mentality”, taking into account the supplementary increase factor, the price of Asian PX increased by 27 US dollars. /ton, staged a plot of “accumulation and accumulation”.
The main reasons for the recent wave of market conditions are as follows: on the one hand, it is because Asia’s PX supply and demand fundamentals no longer have the advantage, the maintenance process of domestic PX devices has basically ended, and the average operating load of other countries in Asia is above 80%; on the other hand, it is because Market participants are obviously lacking in confidence and have long-term expectations for the cost-end oil market. In addition, India relies on the production plan of 2.2 million tons/year of new PX production capacity, resulting in the overall tone of cautious trading in the market.
In the later period, the overall Asian PX market conditions are still optimistic. First of all, judging from the recent trend of the oil market, although the Fed’s interest rate hike is negative, the $53/barrel mark has strong support, and oil-producing countries have taken a positive stance on the implementation of production cuts. Although investors are still cautiously paying attention to the implementation, they are not optimistic about the further implementation. There is still confidence in the balanced pattern, and the cost-side support momentum is sufficient; and the key node of long-term contracts and maintenance process arrangements at the end of the year and next year, and the Christmas holiday is approaching, and the capital activity has slowed down, it is inevitable that most people will wait and see; in addition, the PTA factory will soar in 2017 Lu Petrochemical, Pengwei Petrochemical, Far East Petrochemical, etc. all have production resumption plans. Domestic PX demand levels are expected to pick up, and the supply and demand advantages of the Asian PX market will gradually become prominent. In summary, after repeated bottoming in the second half of the year and an obvious correction near the end of the year, it is expected that the Asian PX market will experience a warm winter.
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