[168TEX News] In recent times, some strange phenomena have appeared in the polyester industry. Crude oil is clearly rising sharply, and the fact that PTA is expected to be tight does exist. However, the polyester filament segment has encountered curbs, with tepid production and sales and low prices. Industry people are quite helpless. Today, the performance of the polyester market has impressed us again. The market that has been dull for a long time finally broke out!
The price drop ends and the polyester market rises!
Affected by the agreement between Russia and Saudi Arabia to freeze production overnight, WTI May crude oil futures closed up $1.81, or 4.5%, at $42.17/barrel, a new closing high since November 2015 and the first time since July 2014. Closed above the 200-day moving average. Brent crude oil futures for June delivery closed up $1.90, or 4.44%, at $44.73 per barrel. The settlement price exceeded the 200-day moving average for the first time since July 2014.
Different from the lackluster response to the sharp rise in crude oil last Friday, the polyester market finally benefited from the strength of crude oil this time. PTA futures rose 2.61% in the morning, and polyester filament also ended the negative trend of several days. The quotations of most polyester factories including Shenghong, Lianda, Jiabao and Nanfang increased.
The “buy, buy, buy” market reappears, production and sales have exceeded 200 at noon
At the same time, affected by the market situation, the enthusiasm of downstream weaving companies for stocking has been gradually ignited. Different from the sluggish market situation in the past few days when production and sales were less than 100%, as of 11 noon, the average production and sales of polyester factories had exceeded 200%, and some higher production and sales had exceeded 300%.
So, after today, everyone has to start thinking again, whether the rising pattern can continue tomorrow, and if it rises, how much room is left? Let us carefully sort out the fundamentals and long-short pattern:
Fundamental situation:
1. Profit status of chemical fiber industry chain products
2. Inventory and operating rate of chemical fiber industry chain
In terms of operating rate:
Inventory:
Although the current upstream raw material market has a solid foundation, while seeing the market is improving, we have to ignore some potential crises, such as whether international oil prices can further increase in breakthroughs, the space for improvement in polyester demand is limited, and downstream terminals Problems such as the market peak season or early end have the risk of suppressing the price increase of polyester filament. Generally speaking, neither the crude oil or PTA futures bulls nor the current polyester manufacturers have reached the point of sure win. Beware of short sellers trying to get back to you.
