[168TEX News] In recent months, the polyester market has been shrouded in low pressure. At the end of 2015, all mainstream products are facing the risk of hitting new lows for the year. The cotton market, which is also the “main force” in the textile market, has not escaped this bad luck. Both the cotton spot market and the futures market are in a weak state and may end the 2015 market at this pace.
1. Cotton spot weak adjustment
First of all, it is natural to observe from the cotton spot market. In recent months, the cotton spot market has still been dominated by a weak adjustment pattern, and the overall price center of gravity is mostly running at a low level; especially since December, the center of gravity of the market price has been in a straight line downwards. , once again hit a new low for the year, and the gloomy atmosphere only briefly lifted in late December. From the specific price point of view, as of December 30, the average factory price of 2227B grade cotton was 11,869 yuan/ton, the average factory price of 3128B grade cotton was concentrated at 12,923 yuan/ton, and the average factory price of 2129B grade cotton was 11,869 yuan/ton. It dropped to around 13,555 yuan/ton. Overall, there are still two polarizations in the current cotton spot market. Due to the large amount of low-quality cotton in the market, some manufacturers actively lower prices to promote procurement in order to withdraw funds, while many high-quality cotton manufacturers are reluctant to sell. As for imported cotton, the price of imported cotton has also fluctuated; among them, Indian cotton Shankar-6 1-5/32 is quoted at 67.25 cents/pound, and the quoted price under the discounted standard tax is 13,549 yuan/ton; under the 1% quota tariff, the port price The self-pickup quotation is 10,995 yuan/ton. In addition, the US cotton EMOT SM quotation is 75.25 cents/pound, and the quotation is 14,252 yuan/ton with a discount of quasi-tax; the self-pickup quotation at the port under a 1% quota tariff is 12,279 yuan/ton; the Uzbek SM quotation is 78.25 cents/pound, with a discount of quasi-tax. The lower quotation is 145,395 yuan/ton; the port self-pickup quotation under 1% quota tariff is 12,761 yuan/ton.
2. The futures market is operating weakly
In addition, from the perspective of futures, the cotton futures market of Zhengzhou Commercial Exchange has been dominated by weak operation in recent stages. Specifically, judging from the main 1601 contract, the market has fallen below the 12,000 yuan/ton mark; as of 30 On the same day, it closed at 11,945 yuan/ton. Compared with the closing price of the same period last month, it dropped significantly by nearly 250 yuan/ton, with a decrease of about 2.11%. In addition, its trading volume and open interest decreased to a certain extent. . In terms of foreign cotton, the market conditions are also unsatisfactory. As of today, the settlement price of the 1603-month ICE cotton futures contract closed at 63.87 cents/pound, and the 1605-month contract closed at 64.62 cents.
3. Weak finishing of downstream yarn
When it comes to cotton market dynamics, demand must be related to the downstream yarn market conditions. Recently, the downstream yarn market continues to be in a weak consolidation trend, and there is still a lack of transaction intensity. Among them, the overall cotton yarn market has shown a consolidation and decline, and the overall market sales are still weak. Except for 21S and 32S, the sales of other products are in a weak trend; in addition, the polyester-cotton yarn market continues to decline, and its 21S quotation is currently at 13,000 yuan. / ton, 16S is quoted at around 11,900 yuan / ton, 45S is quoted at around 16,300 yuan / ton, and the overall market transaction is at a weak level. It is understood that the current overall operation of yarn mills is concentrated at around 60%-70%, and inventory pressure still exists; in addition, as the end of the year is approaching, most yarn manufacturers are aiming to withdraw funds as their main goal, so it is expected that the yarn market may still see moderate adjustments in the future. possible.
Overall, the phenomenon of polarization in the spot market still exists. In the absence of a boost from the demand side, the spot market may have difficulty gaining momentum in the short term, while the futures market is also more likely to be weak and volatile; the cotton market is “low pressure” “It is difficult to dissipate in the short term, and the market outlook still needs to pay close attention to the supply and demand situation and policy trends.”
