Downstream demand is weak and PTA futures prices will still fall.

As crude oil prices have stabilized and rebounded slightly, and PTA equipment has entered the peak maintenance season, PTA futures prices have continued to rebound since the end of August. The cumulative increase of the main 1601 contract on August 25 has reached 6.74%, and has continued to rebound in the past three trading days. Analysts believe that in the short term, there will be short-term support on the supply side due to equipment maintenance. In the long term, crude oil will run at a low level, cost support will shift downward, and downstream demand will be weak, and the center of gravity of PTA prices will fall again.
“Yisheng Petrochemical’s 3.75 million ton unit is undergoing maintenance. Due to key equipment failure, it cannot start as scheduled, and the start-up time will be postponed to mid-November. Fujian Jialong Petrochemical’s 600,000-ton PTA unit will be shut down on October 28, and the restart time is uncertain. BP1.1 million-ton PTA The device is scheduled to undergo annual maintenance in late November, which is expected to take about 15 days. If the Yisheng chemical device maintains 60% of the load, the supply and demand of PTA will basically remain balanced, and the inventory inflection point has appeared. If all is shut down, the PTA load will drop to about 62%, and supply and demand will There is still a gap of about 3%, and the inventory low will appear in mid-November.” Huatai Futures analyst Cheng Lin pointed out.
According to Founder mid-term futures researcher Liang Jiakun, some PTA manufacturers have taken a large number of orders in the spot market, and the spot price has been relatively volatile. As of last Friday, the domestic trade PTA spot market in East China was negotiated to be delivered at around 4,660 yuan/ton. The US dollar market negotiation valuation is around US$635/ton.
“At present, PTA companies’ profits and losses are basically balanced. Most of the equipment has been overhauled in the early stage. The process of production capacity elimination has been blocked. There is no room for PTA load to decrease in the later stage.” Cheng Lin said that the focus in the later stage will be the restructuring of Xianglu and Tenglong. The main impact is expected In 2016, coupled with the postponement of two sets of new production capacity to next year, the PTA forward contract will be under greater pressure. Overall, PTA supply and demand turned to excess after mid-November, and forward contracts will become even weaker due to the pressure of 7.5 million tons of production capacity.
In terms of upstream raw materials, the oversupply of crude oil market still suppresses oil prices. Recently, the United States plans to sell millions of barrels of strategic crude oil reserves between 2018 and 2025. There is strong bearish sentiment in the market.
In terms of downstream consumption, the market shows a high polyester load, medium inventory, and poor profits.
In terms of construction start-up, according to Huatai Futures data, the polyester load remained at around 76% in mid-October, and the polyester product load in November is expected to fluctuate mainly. The average production and sales rate of polyester products in October was above 100%. As of the end of October, the overall domestic polyester inventory fell slightly. Among them, FDY inventory was 17.5 days, an increase of 0.5 days from the end of last month; POY inventory was 12.9 days, a decrease from the end of last month. 2.6 days; DTY inventory is 23 days, an increase of 0.3 days from the end of last month; polyester staple fiber inventory is 8.6 days, a decrease of 2.6 days from the end of last month.
“The full-load resumption of Yisheng Hua’s 3.75 million-ton unit will lead to an effective recovery in PTA’s operating rate. However, the end of the traditional peak season for downstream polyester, inventory accumulation and sluggish profits may lead to a decline in its operating rate. PTA supply and demand will return to a surplus pattern. At the same time, raw materials Weak PX also makes it difficult to form effective cost support for PTA, and the downside risk of PTA in November is greater. However, the spot market is still strong due to repurchases by PTA manufacturers, and we still need to pay attention to the support for futures prices in the short term.” Zhang Qiaoyun, a researcher at Maike Futures, analyzed.