Polyester staple fiber: first alleviating “near-term worries” but then showing “long-term worries”

[168TEX News] At the end of September, the market price of polyester staple fiber dropped to a new low of 6,770 yuan/ton for the year. However, after the long holiday, the market situation of polyester staple fiber was unexpected, and it suddenly surged to above 6,900 yuan/ton. After that, it continued to run strongly for many days; however, just when the market expected that the worries about polyester short fiber prices would be alleviated, in the middle of the year, the market prices of polyester staple fibers stopped and weakened again, returning to low levels. As of the end of October, the mainstream quotations in the 1.4D direct-spun polyester staple market were concentrated around 6,750-6,850 yuan/ton.

Investigating the influencing factors, first of all, it is the impact of the upstream raw material market conditions on the cost of polyester staple fiber. In early October, driven by the sharp increase in international oil prices, the market prices of raw materials PX, polyester raw materials PTA and MEG all increased to a certain extent; this naturally has an upward impact on the polyester staple fiber market from a cost perspective. A very strong boost came. However, this round of rising prices did not last long. As oil prices fell again and hit a two-month low, the price center of the raw material PX market resumed its downward trend. Although the PTA market trend was slightly firm, the price center showed a range-bound fluctuation pattern. It is hovering around 4600-4700 yuan/ton, but under cost pressure, MEG’s market has collapsed and continued to decline. Near the end of the month, its price center dropped to below 5,000 yuan. Affected by this, the polyester staple fiber market has also There is no way to escape the fate of decline. In addition, it is expected that with crude oil inventories showing another increase and concerns about oversupply continuing, the downward trend of international oil prices may be difficult to “brake”, which will naturally have a certain suppressive effect on the polyester staple fiber market from a cost perspective.


As the most critical factor affecting the market trend of polyester staple fiber, and also the most direct influencing factor, it is naturally the downstream yarn market demand. Judging from the recent situation of the downstream yarn market, the market situation still continues the weak adjustment pattern. Among them, the actual transactions in the polyester and cotton yarn market are mostly discounted based on the actual order size. The overall transaction volume is not large and the inventory has increased slightly; while pure The polyester yarn market is still in a weak state, and the mainstream quotation focus of the market has also loosened slightly. Among them, the market quotation of 32S pure polyester yarn is concentrated at 11,100 yuan/ton, while the market quotation of 45S pure polyester yarn is concentrated at 12,100 yuan/ton. The market transaction situation is not good, and the overall transaction is at a moderate to weak level. Under the influence of the weak market situation, the current overall operating situation of yarn mills in the market is not ideal. Relatively speaking, the operating rate of large factories has remained at around 70% to 80% with stable orders, but many small factories have closed down. Focusing on producing to order and maintaining low inventory operations, the operating load may continue to decline in the future; this also means that downstream yarn manufacturers’ purchasing power for polyester staple fiber may further decline.
In addition, we know that what is most closely related to the polyester staple fiber market is the trend of the cotton market. Polyester staple fiber is mostly used to replace cotton in the production of yarn. Under the influence of substitution, the price correlation coefficient and degree of correlation between cotton and polyester staple fiber is quite high; therefore, the price difference between cotton and cotton affects the market of polyester staple fiber. important factors. Judging from the recent cotton spot market conditions, the overall trend is rising first and then falling, and the overall price focus is still slightly lower than last month; in terms of specific prices, as of the end of October, the average factory price of 2227B grade cotton was 11,872 yuan/ton. , compared with the price in the same period last month, it was slightly lowered by 20 yuan/ton; in addition, the average factory price of 2129B grade cotton was around 13,545 yuan/ton, which was slightly lower by 16 yuan/ton compared with the price in the same period last month. As seed cotton harvesting in some areas gradually comes to an end and will end in mid-to-early November, cotton farmers’ shipping mentality has slightly increased, and the market outlook may consider reducing prices to ease inventories; if cotton prices fall in the market outlook, it may inhibit polyester staple fiber to a certain extent. Market trends.
Taken together, the upstream raw material market lacks upward momentum, resulting in cost suppression for the polyester staple market, while the downstream yarn market demand is weak, and it is difficult to improve the procurement demand for raw polyester staple fiber; in the short term, the negative impact on the polyester staple fiber market will dominate It is expected that some manufacturers who are eager to ship goods or adjust prices to promote sales when the transaction is completed are not expected to rule out the market outlook. <br /