Hylke Vandenbussche, professor of economics at the University of Leuven in Belgium, completed a research report analyzing which EU member states’ industries will be hardest hit under a “hard Brexit”. The summary of the report is as follows:
(1) Belgium: It is estimated that 4,500 jobs will be lost in the food manufacturing industry, which means that 1 in 20 people will be forced to Unemployment; the textile industry will lose 3,440 jobs; the administrative and service industry will lose 4,300 jobs. In addition, the petrochemical industry and the pharmaceutical industry are expected to lose 1.3 billion euros in added value. The Flanders regional government, one of Belgium’s three major administrative regions, strongly requested the European Commission to establish a transition fund to support industries in EU member states that would be severely affected by Britain’s “hard Brexit”. For Belgium as a whole, Brexit with an agreement will result in the loss of 10,000 jobs and a 0.58% reduction in GDP. A “hard Brexit” will cause the number of unemployed people in Belgium to reach 42,000 and reduce GDP by 2.35%.
(2) Other countries: Romania’s livestock industry, Hungary’s machine manufacturing industry, Spanish automobile manufacturing industry, and the electronics industry in Poland and the Czech Republic will also be severely affected. , the textile industry in Italy and Portugal, the German pharmaceutical industry, and the Danish beverage manufacturing industry.
(3) “Hard Brexit” means that the UK will leave the EU without any agreement with the EU. For the EU, the UK will become ” “Third country”, the future trade in goods between the UK and the EU will be subject to a higher WTO most-favored nation tax rate; and if the UK leaves the EU with an agreement (soft Brexit), although the trade in goods between the UK and the EU will continue to be subject to zero Tariffs may enjoy low tariffs, but the UK can implement its own controls on drugs and food, and can add other technical or financial-related regulations, which has represented a new important trade barrier for European pharmaceutical companies. In the case of a “soft Brexit”, the European pharmaceutical industry is expected to lose 1% of its jobs, and if a “hard Brexit” occurs, it will lose 3.7% of its jobs. The impact of the Brexit agreement on the textile industry and food manufacturing industry is very different. A “hard Brexit” will cause more than 6 times the loss than a “soft Brexit”.
